Stat of the Day, 5th April 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

1.55 Southwell : Dolly Dupree @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, never on terms)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.40 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Champ 11/4 BOG

…in the 13-runner, Grade 1, Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good to Soft/Soft worth £56130 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has never been out of the first two home so far, winning 5 of 8 starts including…

  • 4/6 over hurdles, 4/5 going left handed & 4/5 as favourite
  • 4/6 on Good to Soft/Soft, 2/4 in Novice Hurdles
  • 3/3 carrying 11-04 to 11-06, 2/3 within 14-28 days of his last run
  • 2/3 under Barry Geraghty and 1/2 at Grade 1.

His trainer, Nicky Henderson, is 29/132 (22% SR) for 82.5pts (+62.5% ROI) over hurdles here at Aintree since 2012, from which…

  • those running at the National meeting are 17/91 (18.7%) for 50.7pts (+55.7%)
  • those racing after a break of 21-75 days : 20/90 (22.2%) for 62.5pts (+69.4%)
  • on Good to Soft / Soft ground : 16/72 (22.2%) for 17.6pts (+24.4%)
  • in non-handicaps : 18/67 (26.9%) for 13.4pts (+19.9%)
  • those who ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO are 13/55 (23.6%) for 56.8pts (+103.3%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 21/53 (39.6%) for 57pts (+107.5%)

And more generally…Since 2010, horses finishing in the first three home at the Cheltenham Festival who are then sent straight to the Aintree National Meeting have won 63 of 262 (24.1% SR) for 172.7pts (+65.9% ROI) and these include of relevance today…

  • non-hcps : 53/179 (29.6%) for 72.8pts (+40.7%)
  • at Grade 1 : 41/150 (27.3%) for 57.7pts (+38.5%)
  • hurdlers are 34/121 (28.1%) for 109pts (+90.1%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 22/105 (21%) for 56.2pts (+53.5%)
  • and those trained by Nicky Henderson are 19/46 (41.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.9%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Champ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 9.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.40 Aintree

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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