Stat of the Day, 6th April 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.40 Aintree : Champ @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up towards rear, not fluent 7th, headway approaching 4 out, led going well when not fluent 2 out, clear flat, ridden out, comfortably clear by 3 lengths)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

8.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Zapper Cass 5/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 1131 in his last four outings, the latest being a win here at Wolverhampton over 5f four days ago. He steps back up to 6f today, but looked like he’d plenty left in the tank last time.

Jockey Mark Crehan is on board again seeking to utilise his 7lb claim to further an already excellent record on this horse that shows 3 wins and a place from 8 rides to date. Mark is actually quietly establishing a bit of a reputation in the Mick Appleby yard, having ridden 13 winners from 46 (28.3% SR) for the yard so far, generating level stakes profits of 66.5pts (+144.6% ROI) and these include…

  • on 4-7 yr olds : 13/42 (31%) for 70.5pts (+167.9%)
  • on males : 13/39 (33.3%) for 73.5pts (+188.5%)
  • when claiming 7lbs : 8/38 (21.1%) for 47.8pts (+125.8%)
  • at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 12/33 (36.4%) for 31.9pts (+96.6%)
  • 4-25 dslr : 10/31 (32.3%) for 65.4pts (+211%)
  • over trips of 6f to 1m : 11/30 (36.7%) for 64.3pts (+214.4%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 61.6pts (+324%)
  • over 6f : 3/8 (37.5%) for 52.2pts (+652.3%)
  • and in April : 2/3 (66.6%) for 10.14pts (+338.1%)

…whilst Crehan + Appleby + 4-7 yr old males + 6f-1m + 8/1 and shorter = 10/18 (55.6% SR) for 28.7pts (+159.3%)…

It’s also worth noting that since the start of 2017, Mick Appleby runners turned back out after just 3-7 days rest are 37/187 (19.8% SR) for 46.4pts (+24.8%), from which…

  • at Class 5 : 21/71 (29.6%) for 43.9pts (+61.8%)
  • 6-9 yr olds : 17/64 (26.6%) for 83.2pts (+129.9%)
  • LTO winners are 11/35 (31.4%) for 5.88pts (+16.8%)
  • and when using a jockey claiming 7lbs : 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.77pts (+48.1%)

…and from the above… Appleby + 3-7 dslr + 2017-19 + 6-9 yr olds + Class 5 = 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 42.6pts (+157.7% ROI), including…

  • LTO winners = 4/4 (100%) for 9.43pts (+235.8%)
  • with a 7lb claim : 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.7pts (+156.7%)
  • and with a 7lb claimer on an LTO winner : 2/2 (100%) for 5.7pts (+285%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Zapper Cass 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 8.00 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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