Stat of the Day, 9th April 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.30 Redcar : Sameem @ 5/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, drew clear well over 1f out, readily won by 1.25 lengths)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Exeter:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Coopers Square @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7½f on Good  ground worth £7148 to the winner…


This 8 yr old gelding is 11U11 in five starts this year and to date, his overall record includes…

  • 4/5 at 3m and beyond (3/4 in chases)
  • 4/5 underjockey Alan Johns (3/4 over fences)
  • 3/5 within 15 days of his last run (2/2 over fences)
  • 3/5 over fences
  • 3/3 on good ground (2/2 over fences)

Stat-wise, it’s a brief two-pronged approach today, as his win in a handicap novice chase at Warwick 12 days ago flagged him up on a couple of my saved micros…

…in UK Class 4 hcp chases, runners sent off at 7/1 and shorter, 6-25 days after winning a Novice chase LTO are 83/254 (32.7% SR) for 55pts (+21.7%. ROI), from which those winning a handicap novice chase LTO are 81/243 (33.3%) for 61.5pts (+25.3%)

…and secondly, since 2013, males priced at 6/4 to 8/1 in a Class 4 handicap chase less than three weeks after winning another handicap chase LTO are 138/530 (26% SR) for 89.2pts (+16.8% ROI) with those who won a handicap novice chase last time winning 43 of 142 (30.3%) for 37.5pts (+26.4%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Coopers Square @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 2.20am on Tuesday (9.20pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.15 Exeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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