Stat of the Day, 12th April 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

5.05 Wetherby : Fingerontheswitch @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up, headway chasing leaders 7th, 3rd and one pace from 4 out)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.35 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Hooflepuff @ 10/3 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1on Polytrack ground worth £3105 to the winner… 


This 3 yr old Colt might well be 0 from 4 so far, but the margin of defeat has been reduced on each occasion and he made the frame for the first time last time out. In that contest, he was beaten by three lengths, finishing third here over this course and distance 30 days ago on handicap debut despite coming off a 10-week lay off.

Luke Morris was riding him for the first time that day and he keeps the ride today. The horse should come on for having had the run last time out and with a 1lb drop in the weights, he should go well again today for trainer Robert Cowell.

And it’s this hoped-for benefit of a previous run which attracted me to the horse because…

Robert Cowell + A/W handicaps + runners with just one hcp run in the previous 90 days + odds shorter than 5/1 = 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 13.71pts (+85.7% ROI) and whilst that’s not the biggest sample size I’ve ever used for SotD, the following subsets of data suggest this isn’t just a lucky coincidence, as from those 16 runners…

  • males are 7/15 (46.7%) for 10.59pts (+70.6%)
  • those beaten by more than a length LTO are 5/7 (71.4%) for 11.98pts (+171.1%)
  • those last seen 21-60 days ago are 4/7 (57.1%) for 10.39pts (+148.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 8.87pts (+147.8%)
  • Class 6 runners are 2/4 (50%) for 2.64pts (+65.9%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 1/2 (50%) for 4.31pts (+215.5%)
  • and those racing here at Kempton are 1/1 (100%) for 3.44pts (+344%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Hooflepuff @ 10/3 BOG which was widely available at 11.55pm on Thursday (6.55pm here),. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.35 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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