Stat of the Day, 13th April 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.35 Kempton : Hooflepuff @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Held up, headway chasing leaders 7th, 3rd and one pace from 4 out)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Zapper Cass @ 9/2 BOG

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…in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner…


This 6 yr old gelding has three wins and a place from his last five runs and is dropped back down to 5f after failing to make the frame here over 6f last Saturday (I tipped him that day too!).

To date on the A/W , he has…

  • 3 wins from 10 at Class 5
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 at 5f
  • 2 wins from 4 in a visor
  • and 1 win from his only previous crack at this track and trip.

Jockey Mark Crehan claims 7lbs again today and his record on Mick Appleby-trained horses currently stands at 14 from 50 (28% SR) for 67.1pts (+134.2% ROI) since they first teamed up last May and these include…

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 24.4pts (+54.2%) in handicaps
  • 14/43 (32.6%) for 74.1pts (+172.2%) from male runners
  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 48.3pts (+115.1%) when Mark claims 7lbs
  • 13/36 (36.1%) for 33.4pts (+92.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 7.34pts (+18.8%) on the A/W
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 59.6pts (+283.7%) at Class 5
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 10.66pts (+152.3%) already this month!

…and from the above… Appleby + Crehan + hcps + males + 7lbs claim + 8/1 & shorter = 8/23 (34.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+85.6% ROI)

And since this horse has been turned out just a week after his last run, you might find it interesting to know that…

… 2017-19 + Mick Appleby + 6-7 days since last run = 22/109 (20.2% SR) for 47.4pts (+43.5% ROI) including…

  • 6/7 yr olds at 9/37 (24.3%) for 49.4pts (+133.5%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 4/1 (where I expect to end up) : 15/34 (44.1%) for 23.1pts (+67.8%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.6pts (+45.9%)
  • over 5f : 6/18 (33.3%) for 24.1pts (+133.9%)
  • and those beaten by 3-4 lengths LTO are 4/13 (30.8%) for 37.2pts (+286.1%)

…whilst 6/7 yr olds sent off at 6/4 to 4/1 are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 12.4pts (+82.6% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Zapper Cass @ 9/2 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 9.55pm on Friday (4.55pm here),. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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