Stat of the Day, 16th April 2019

Monday’s pick was…

4.40 Hexham : Ravished @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, led before 7th, went right 13th, clear with winner after 4 out, ridden and headed turning in, soon one pace, edged right and kept on closing stages, beaten by just a length)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

7.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Corinthia Knight @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 3, A/W Conditions Stakes for 4yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £7159 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding looks well suited by the task ahead and has already won 7 of 18 starts on the A/W prior to today, and with today’s contest in mind, that 7/18 record includes…

  • 6/13 after 10 to 40 days rest
  • 6/13 in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 6/12 in non-handicap races
  • 5/10 over 5 furlongs
  • 5/10 when sent off shorter than 4/1
  • 3/9 ridden by Ed Greatrex
  • 2/5 on Tapeta
  • 2/2 in April
  • and 1 from 2 over course and distance

…whilst from the above…when sent off shorter than 4/1 in 5f non-handicaps against 4-8 rivals after a 10-40 day break, he is 3 from 3 (100% SR) for 4.14pts (+137.8% ROI) profit.

His trainer, Archie Watson is in decent form right now, too, with a 14-day record reading 8 from 28 (28.6 SR) for 12.3pts (+43.9% ROI), from which 5f sprinters are 3 from 7 and jockey Ed Greatrex is 2 from 6.

Ed himself is 3/12 over the past fortnight and 2 from 7 in the last week, so he’s also riding well enough…

…to support… a 1pt win bet on Corinthia Knight @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by most bookies at 5.30am on Tuesday (12.30am here), although Paddy Power were slightly more generous at 10/3 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 7.15 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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