Stat of the Day, 17th April 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

7.15 Wolverhampton : Corinthia Knight @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Soon pressing leader, led over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

6.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Elixsoft @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f on Good To Firm worth £4285 to the winner… 

Why?

Here we have a 4 yr old filly in good recent form, having finished 2122 in her last four runs (in mixed company) and she seems to have a good relationship with today’s jockey Ben Curtis, as the pair have 3 wins and 2 places from 6 outings together.

This jockey/horse success isn’t as surprising when you see that Ben has actually ridden 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) for trainer Roger Fell over the last 18 months, generating level stakes profits of some 71.2pts at an ROI of 124.9% and this include of note/relevance today…

  • 14 from 45 (31.1%) for 83.2pts (+184.8%) on those returning from a break of 4-60 days
  • 13 from 49 (26.5%) for 76.3pts (+155.7%) in handicaps
  • 10 from 23 (43.5%) for 17.4pts (+75.8%) from those sent off at 5/1 and shorter
  • 7 from 14 (50%) for 44.3pts (+316.3%) on 4 yr olds
  • 5 from 24 (20.8%) for 26.8pts (+111.6%) at Class 5
  • and 4 from 10 (40%) for 36.85pts (+368.5%) on female runners

…whilst from the above… Curtis + Fell + handicappers at 5/1 & shorter after a break of 4-45 days = 9/17 (52.9% SR) for 20.6pts (+120.9%) and these include from above…

  • 4 yr olds @ 5/6 (83.3%) for 14.7pts (+245.2%)
  • females @ 3/5 (60%) for 8.75pts (+175%)
  • and Class 5 @ 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.8pts (+82.9%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Elixsoft @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 7.05pm on Tuesday (2.05pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.10 Beverley

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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