Stat of the Day, 18th April 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

6.10 Beverley : Elixsoft @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 9/4 (Mid-division, ridden inside final 2f, never able to challenge, weakened final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.35 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Alkaamel @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £8715 to the winner… 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 1112 in four runs this year and was only beaten by a neck last time out. That was at today’s class/trip up at Newcastle 17 days ago when he just couldn’t quite repel Hesslewood who was dropping in both class and weight that day.

Hesslewood re-opposes today, of course, but our boy is a pound better off at the weights here and with the benefit of a better draw, I fancy his chances of reversing the placings on his way to improving career stats that have seen him finish…

  • 1112 in handicaps
  • 1112 in fields of fewer than 11 runners
  • 111 as a favourite
  • 112 over the 1m trip
  • 811 after 16-30 days rest
  • 12 under today’s jockey, 7lb claimer, Cieren Fallon

Our boy also has the benefit of being trained by William Haggas, who does rather well at this venue from a fairly select number of runners. In fact Mr Haggas’ charges have won 22 of 49 (44.9% SR) here over the last five seasons, generating level stakes profits of 13.74pts at a healthy ROI of 28% and these include…

  • 17/35 (48.6%) for 20.5pts (+58.7%) at odds of 4/6 to 13/2
  • 17/34 (50%) for 16.2pts (+47.6%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 18/31 (58.1%) for 15.05pts (+48.6%) with male runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 6.05pts (+20.2%) on Good ground
  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 10.44pts (+55%) in 3yo races
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 6.8pts (+52.3%) over this 1m C&D
  • 6/8 (75%) for 5.66pts (+70.7%) in April
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.9pts (+96.5%) at Class 3

…whilst, from the above… 3 yr old males at 4/6 to 13/2 on Good ground are 7/10 (70% SR) for 12pts (+120% ROI), from which they are 5 from 8 in 3yo races, 3 from 3 over this 1m C&D, 2 from 2 at Class 3 and 2 from 2 in April…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Alkaamel @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Wednesday (12.45pm here), but those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get an extra quarter point right now. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.35 Ripon

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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