Stat of the Day, 19th April 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

4.35 Ripon : Alkaamel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, pushed along to chase winner over 1f out, stayed on towards finish, but couldn’t reel in the winner who’d been given far too soft and far too big a lead early on.)

Good Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £5322 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 4yr old filly who has never finished outside the first home in nine starts, winning three times and placing on four other occasions, including…

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 over 1m3.5f – 1m4f
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 at 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 under today’s jockey Franny Norton
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 at 1m3.5f
  • 1 win from 2 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 here at Bath
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance

She is trained by Mark Johnston, about whom the market tends to be right here at this venue, as since 2012 his runners sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 23/73 (31.5% SR) for 6.74pts (+9.24% ROI), including the following of relevance today…

  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 14.02pts (+25.5%) on ground officially described using the word firm
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 21pts (+63.7%) from his female runners
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 11.3pts (+35.3%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 3.47pts (+24.8%) from those beaten by 1-3 lengths LTO
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 2.36pts (+29.5%) in April

…whilst females on Good to Firm / Firm are 13/26 (50% SR) for 19.04pts (+73.2% ROI), including 6 from 8 (75%) for 8.61pts (+107.6%) last season…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.35pm on Thursday (12.35pm here), but those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get an extra quarter point right now. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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