Stat of the Day, 20th April 2019

Good Friday’s pick was…

4.35 Bath : Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Soon led, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Easter Saturday’s pick runs in the…

1.50 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner..

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

On a bumper day of racing, I’ve got a stack of data surrounding this 4 yr old gelding who’s has won 4 of 7 since the start of the last Flat season and was a winner last time out 18 days ago.

That was here at Musselburgh over today’s course and distance and despite being on the comeback from a 168 day absence and making a debut for his new yard and being ridden by today’s jockey for the first time, he was still able to see of 3 of today’s rivals in the process.

Yes, he’s up 3lbs for the win, but he seemed to have more to give last time and should could on for having had the run. Chuck in a handy draw in stall 1 and we should be set for a good run for our money, especially at odds that just looked too long to me.

Numerically, he’s suited to the task by already winning 4 from 12 on the Flat, including…

  • 4/9 with the word Good in the official going description
  • 3/5 in handicaps
  • 2/8 at 7f
  • 2/2 going right handed
  • 2/2 in April
  • 1/1 at Class 3 and 1/1 for new trainer Garry Moss
  • 1/1 under jockey Jason Hart, 1/1 here at Musselburgh and ultimately 1/1 over C&D.

Based on the small numbers of runners Garry Moss sends out, you’ll not be surprised to see that Porth Swtan is his only runner anywhere today (more on this shortly), as he was 18 days ago and in fact this is only Garry’s third entry since Valentine’s Day 2017, but that aside, the ones he has sent here to Musselburgh have done well enough.

Overall, his runners are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 11/13pts (+53% ROI), but this stretches back as far as 2008, so to avoid my decision being clouded by old data, I’m focusing on his record here over the last three seasons ie since April 2016, where his record stands at 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 13.67pts (+114% ROI), all in Flat handicaps.

Of this dozen runners…

  • those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1 are 5/9 (55.6%) for 9.4pts (+104.5%)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 5/8 (62.5%) for 10.4pts (+130%)
  • males are 4/8 (50%) for 11.77pts (+147.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 10.16pts (+169.3%)
  • those with 1 previous C&D win are 3/3 (100%) for 7.9pts (+263.3%)
  • at Class 3, it’s 2/3 (66.6%, the other was placed!) for 7.88pts (+262.8%)
  • those ridden by Jason Hart are 2/2 (100%) for 8.88pts (+444%)
  • and in April, they are 2/2 (100%) for 7.73pts (+386.5%)

…whilst those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1, some 6-25 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 11.4pts (+162.9%).

But wait! As the patently unfunny “comedian” Jimmy Cricket was fond of saying : there’s more!

Earlier I said that Garry only had the one runner today, well it turns out these solo travellers tend to more than pay for the diesel to get them to track, as since 2015 when having just one runner on the day, Garry is 17 from 87 (19.5% SR) for 63.9pts (+73.4% ROI), including of relevance today…

  • 16/74 (21.6%) for 72.4pts (+97.8%) in handicaps
  • 15/69 (21.7%) for 73.4pts (+106.4%) from male runners
  • 12/48 (25%) for 77.9pts (+162.4%) within 90 miles of his yard
  • 11/49 (22.5%) for 72.6pts (+148.2%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33pts (+66%) on the Flat
  • 9/31 (29%) for 74pts (+238.8%) from 4/5 yr olds
  • 9/31 (29%) for 59.8pts (193%) over 7f/1m
  • 5/11 (45.6%) for 36pts (+327.4%) in April
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.19pts (+131.3%) here at Musselburgh
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) from those with 1 previous C&D win
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 7.67pts (+85.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.87pts (+29.8%) with Jason Hart in the saddle…

…whilst from the above…male handicappers sent out on their own less than 90 miles from how after a break of just 11-45 days are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 84.1pts (+400.5% ROI)… I could go on with more data/stats, but I don’t want to bore you into submission.

So, happy Easter everyone, Matt’s in the hotseat for Monday’s pick, I’ll be posting Tuesday’s selection late on Monday night…

…and I’ll sign off with… a 1pt win bet on Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet with plenty of 4/1 BOG widely available at 5.30pm on Good Friday (12.30pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.50 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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