Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

1.50 Musselburgh: Port Swtan @ 9/2 BOG Fell at 5/2 (Chased leaders on inside, went wrong and fell over 3f – fatally injured)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

3.20 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG

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…in an 7-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 3yo fillies over 7f on Standard worth £3752 to the winner…


It’s deja vu, as Matt steps in for Chris on another Monday and looks to replicate the 5/1 winning trick of my previous temporary stewardship. Specifically…

James Tate’s three-year-old Morpheus filly is making her handicap debut in this contest. The trainer continues to  excel with handicap debutant(e)s and has now won with 13 of the 39 he’s saddled in the past year (33.33%, +16.19, A/E 1.8).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate’s form with first time handicap runners reads 112111278611126.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with five of the 13 runners he’s sent out in the past fortnight (38.46%, +1.63, A/E 1.2). In the past 30 days, his record is 9/25, and again positive figures for P/L and A/E.

The trainer record at Wolverhampton is remarkable in the past year: eight winners from 16 runners (50% SR, +18.75, A/E 1.96).

Evolutionary has a bit to find on the book with the likes of favourite Diamond Oasis, but she’s likely to improve notably for her first run of the year and the first attempt at handicap company. As always, the price – along with the stat – makes the play…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG which was available generally at 7.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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