Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.20 Wolverhampton : Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, ridden and headed just over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

3.55 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Lissycasey @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f ongood ground worth £4938 to the winner…

Why?

Well, at first glance, you’d be forgiven for thinking I’d got jet lag from the annoyingly expensively delayed flight back from the USA by picking a 6yr old gelding with a 0 from 10 record over hurdles, beaten by a combined 108 lengths by finishing 10th of 14 in each of his last three outings, the last over this very course and distance!

So, that’s the elephant in the room dealt with, nobody can accuse me of not mentioning stats that don’t back up the selection!

He has however moved yards and now makes a debut for Kim Bailey, who has an excellent record at this venue, as does today’s jockey David Bass. No disrespect intended to previous trainer/jockeys, but I’d expect this pair to get more out of a horse who is potentially very well treated based on past efforts. In fact he was placed twice around this time last year, so maybe April is his time and he’s now running off a mark today of 106 as opposed to 115 & 117 on those two efforts last year.

Stat-wise, I’ll keep it pretty simple with an age old formula of trainer + venue =  recent winners + profit as Kim Bailey + Ludlow + 2013-19 = 24 from 123 (19.5% SR) for 34pts (+27.7% ROI) profit, from which there are a stack of viable angles at play today, but here are some of the more obvious ones…

  • 21 from 74 (28.4%) for 71.4pts (+96.5%) from 4-6 yr olds
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 71.5pts (+90.5%) over trips of 2m-2m6f
  • 19/56 (33.9%) for 22.7pts (+40.6%) at ISPs of 5/1 and shorter
  • 18/59 (30.5%) for 33.1pts (+56.1%) with David Bass in the saddle
  • 17/48 (35.4%) for 66.5pts (+138.5%) on Good ground
  • 16/73 (21.9%) for 37.4pts (+51.2%) after a break of 21-180 days
  • 14/70 (20%) for 22.7pts (+32.4%) at Class 4
  • 14/73 (19.2%) for 28pts (+38.3%) over hurdles
  • 10/37 (27%) for 35.6pts (+96.3%) in Novice races
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 37.8pts (+135.1%) in Novice Hurdles
  • and 7 from 20 (35%) for 31.6pts (+158%) in April…

…whilst from the above…Kim Bailey + David Bass + 2m-2m6f + 4-6 yr olds + 5/1 max = 13 from 18 (72.2% SR) for 37pts (+205.4% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Lissycasey @ 9/2 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Sky Bet at 10.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ludlow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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