Stat of the Day, 24th April 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.55 Ludlow : Lissycasey @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Chased leaders, led before 3 out, headed last, no extra closing stages)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

6.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Riddlestown @ 4/1 BOG

…in an-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on good ground worth £4094 to the winner…

Why?

This 12 yr old gelding makes a return to hurdling after almost 2 years chasing and now races some 14lbs lower than his last effort over the smaller obstacles when winning a similar Class 4, 3 mile contest at Towcester.

To date he is 6 from 23 over hurdles and with today’s race in mind, that record includes…

  • 5 wins, 3 places from 15 in handicaps
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 12 here at Southwell
  • 4 wins from 12 at Class 4
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 9 from March to May
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 9 in blinkers
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 9 on Good ground
  • 4 wins from 7 at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 at this 3m trip

He’s trained by Caroline Fryer, whose NH runners are 8 from 38 (21% SR) for 28.1pts (+74% ROI) here at Southwell since the start of 2015 and here’s how she got her 8 winners…

  • all 8 came from 22 (36.4%) sent off at 12/1 and shorter for 44.1pts (+200.6%)
  • all 8 came from 29 (27.6%) males for 37.1pts (+128%)
  • all 8 came from 35 (22.9%) handicappers for 31.1pts (+88.9%)
  • 7 came from 26 (26.9%) aged 8 or over for 32.9pts (+126.4%)
  • 6 came from the 16 (37.5%) with 1 to 6 previous track wins for 34.9pts (+217.9%)
  • 5 came from 11 (45.5%) running in March/April for 31.9pts (+290.4%)
  • 5 came from 23 (21.7%) hurdlers for 27.4pts (+119.1%)
  • 5 came from 20 (25%) hcp hurdlers for 30.4pts (+151.9%)
  • 5 came from 20 (25%) at Class 4 for 14.4pts (+72%)
  • and 4 came from 17 (23.5%) Good ground runs for 29.1pts (+170.9%)

…and from the above… Male handicappers aged 8 and over with up to 6 previous course wins are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 43.9pts (+292.3% ROI) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Riddlestown @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.55pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were half a point bigger for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.20 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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