Stat of the Day, 25th April 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

6.20 Southwell : Riddlestown @ 4/1 BOG PU at 10/1 (Chased leaders to 3rd, soon behind and not travel well, reminders after 5th, lost touch when pulled up after 8th)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Irish Octave @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on good ground worth £5198 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding has won 3 of his last 8 over fences, all at Class 4, all under today’s jockey Ben Poste and all over 3m/3m0.5f on decent ground including LTO at Chepstow 19 days ago. That last run/win took his record in handicap chases to 6 from 15 (all going left handed and wearing cheekpieces, both of which occur here today) and include the following of relevance today…

  • 6/14 under Ben Poste
  • 5/7 after less than a month’s rest
  • 4/9 at 3m/3m0.5f
  • 3/4 in April-June
  • 3/8 at Class 4
  • 3/8 on Good ground
  • 1/2 here at Warwick
  • 1/1 here over 3m0.5f

Ben Poste is in good touch right now with a 6 from 25 (24% SR) record over the last 30 days including 5 winners from 13 (38.5% SR) over fences and he’s actually 7 from 34 (20.6% SR) for 35.6pts (+104.7% ROI) on Rosemary Gasson’s handicap chasers since the start of 2016 and these include…

  • at 2m6.5f to 3m0.5f : 7/28 (25%) for 41.6pts (+148.6%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/19 (21%) for 23.6pts (+124.3%)
  • and at Class 4 over 2m6.5f to 3m0.5f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 27.6pts (+184.1%)

To be honest, Rosemary doesn’t actually have many chasers, but those sent out in handicap company (all males!) are 7 from 37 (18.9% SR) for 32.6pts (+88.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, amongst which…

  • as above, Ben Poste is 7 from 34 (20.6% SR) for 35.6pts (+104.7% ROI)
  • 7-12 yr olds are 7/26 (26.9%) for 43.6pts (+167.7%)
  • as above, over 2m6.5f to 3m0.5f : 7/28 (25%) for 41.6pts (+148.6%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/21 (19%) for 21.6pts (+102.9%)
  • from April to July : 4/12 933.3%) for 30.61pts (+255.1%)
  • those with less than 3 weeks rest are 6/7 (85.7%) for 44.15pts (+630.7%)
  • LTO winners are 3/6 (50%) for 7.34pts (+122.3%)
  • and here at Warwick, it’s 1 from 2 (50%) for 4.51pts (+225.5%)

…from which… Gasson / Poste / hcp chase / 7-12 yo / 2m6.5f-3m0.5f = 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 50.6pts (+266.3% ROI), including..

  • after less than 3 weeks rest : 6/6 (100%) for 45.15pts (+752.5% )
  • and LTO winners after less than 3 weeks rest : 3/3 (100%) for 10.34pts (+344.5%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Irish Octave @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.45 Warwick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *