Stat of the Day, 26th April 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

4.45 Warwick : Irish Octave @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Held up in last pair, jumped slowly and dropped to last at 8th, rallied approaching 14th, went 3rd 3 out, kept on same pace)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.05 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Leodis Dream @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on good to firm ground worth £12450 to the winner…

Why?

2111 in his four runs to date (only beaten by 0.75 lengths on debut by a more experienced rival), all over this 5f trip, his latest run/win came 13 days ago on his seasonal re-appearance from a 158-day absence, so if he shows no ill-effects from his exertions, should go well again today.

Stat-wise, I’m keeping it fairly simple after a tough week and I’m just going to focus on one of my “April Flat trainers to follow” aka David O’Meara.

The simple facts are that David + Flat (turf) + April = 69/436 (15.8% SR) for 118.8pts (+27.2% ROI), from which handicappers are 52/326 (16%) for 126.1pts (+38.7%) and male handicappers are 48/283 (17%) for 135.5pts (+47.9%)

…and of these 283 male O’Meara-trained April flat ‘cappers…

  • those ridden by Dan Tudhope are 27/134 (20.1%) for 87.6pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing after less than 3 weeks rest : 21/101 (20.8%) for 34.7pts (+34.4%)
  • on Good to Firm : 16/93 (17.2%) for 21.1pts (+22.7%)
  • those stepping up a class are 12/49 (24.5%) for 43pts (+87.8%)
  • LTO winners are 10/37 (27%) for 10.33pts (+27.9%)
  • and here at Sandown : 1/3 (33.3%) for 1.86pts (+62%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Leodis Dream @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.05 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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