Stat of the Day, 27th April 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.05 Sandown : Leodis Dream @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (With leaders, ridden to lead and edged left over 1f out, strongly pressed and held on gamely near finish, all out)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

4.35 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Asad @ 9/4 BOG

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…in a 6-runner, Class 4 Flat Novice Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on good to firm ground worth £5822 to the winner…

Why?

Matt here for Saturday’s and Monday’s picks and I have to say I came very close to going with James Tate’s HC1 runner at Ripon (New Graduate, 2.20). Tate’s current form, his record at the track in handicaps in the last five years (711711) and his by now well known record with handicap debutants made that fellow very appealing.

But, on the statistics and at the price, I thought Asad was better value. This Lope de Vega colt had two runs as a juvenile for George Peckham, both creditable efforts in races which have worked out quite well.

So this is his first run for Simon Crisford, a man who doesn’t get many ‘second-hand’ horses to train. Nevertheless, he’s one-from-three with such acquisitions for a two point profit. Nothing earth-shattering, but it gets better.

Crisford is stepping Asad up in trip by more than two furlongs tomorrow, a feat he’s performed with ten horses in the last two years. Four of them have won (40% SR, +7, A/E 1.43) and nine of them made the frame!

Fitness can be a worry on the first run of a new season, but again Crisford excels: he’s won with 24 of 92 runners off a 60+ day layoff (26.09%, +34.5, A/E 1.36).

His record at the track is yet another positive: 5216282111 in the last two years. That’s four from ten (40%, +3.72).

There is very little form to go on, but with the favourite a shade of odds on (having won at 50/1 on debut and been beaten at 25/1 on his only other start), Simon Crisford’s numbers make the play…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Asad @ 9/4 BOG which was generally available at 6.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.35 Ripon

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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