Stat of the Day, 29th April 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

4.35 Ripon : Asad @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 10/11 (Led over 7f out, pushed along and edged left 2f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, kept on same pace and lost 2nd inside final furlong)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

7.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Persian Sun @ 5/2 BOG

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…in a 8-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m 3 1/2f on good to firm ground worth £5531 to the winner…

Why?

The handicap debutant which wasn’t SotD won on Saturday (by five lengths, 7/2 into 5/4) while the selection could only manage third. Sigh. -1 on our records, of course.

I’m sticking with Simon Crisford, an excellent trainer, for Monday’s pick. He runs Persian Sun for the first time in a handicap – and, yes, I’m unapologetic about going after that angle again; this is a time of year when lots of horses step forward having wintered well from two to three or, as in this case, from three to four.

Crisford has a 30% strike rate with horses making their handicap debut in the last two years, scoring with 17 of 56 of them (30.36%, +16.91, A/E 1.47).

As discussed the other day, he’s also very well capable of getting a horse fit on its first start after a break. Horses running off a 60+ day layoff for Crisford are 25/93 in the last two years (26.88%, +38.00, A/E 1.38).

This fellow returns after 135 days away, and was last seen when winning a Newcastle novice stakes. Crisford with last day winners is 24/96 (25%, -4.89, A/E 1.02). The market is on to these: the SP market at any rate, and I expect this horse to shorten by the time the stalls open.

Because this is a Sheikh Obaid horse, Crisford teams up with the owner’s retained jockey, Andrea Atzeni. When the pair have combined in the last two years, they’ve gone 7/25 (28%, +11.80, A/E 1.19).

All of which gives us…

… a 1pt win bet on Persian Sun @ 5/2 BOG which was available with bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 7.30 Windsor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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