Stat of the Day, 1st May 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

7.40 Newcastle : Blindingly @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders in main group, ridden and hung left over 2f out, weakened under pressure inside final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

3.25 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG

…in the 7-runner, Group 3 Longines Sagaro Stakes for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £34026 to the winner…

Why?…

This 4 yr old Colt had decent runner-up finishes in both of last year’s Chester Vase and The Derby, before losing his way slightly. That said, he was far from disgraced in finishing fourth stepping up in trip in the St Leger, which was his final effort of a busy/tiring season.

That was quite a while ago, but he looked like he’d be able to get today’s trip and if ready for the challenge, he’s certainly well rested this time!

Jockey William Buick is in good nick riding 7 winners from 22 over the last fortnight and rides this track well, having 43 winners from 257 (16.7% SR) for 31.7pts (+12.3% ROI) over the last 5 seasons, including 6 wins from 23 (26.1%) in Group 3 contests that have generated profits of 9.52pts (+41.4%)

His record here at Ascot for trainer Mark Johnston stands at 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 3.47pts (+20.4% ROI) with the following of interest/relevance today…

• in non-hcps : 4/15 (26.7%) for 5.47pts (+36.5%)
• at Class 1 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 2.24pts (+16%)
• on Good to Firm : 3/10 (30%) for 7.75pts (+77.5%)
• males are 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.47pts (+127.5%)
• and for prizes of less than £35k : 2/5 (40%) for 1.95pts (+39%)

…whilst from the above… Buick + Johnston + males + 6/1 & shorter + non-hcps = 4/4 (100% SR) for 16.47pts (+411.8% ROI) including 3/3 at Class 1, 3/3 on Gd to Firm and 2 from 2 in Class 1 races on Good to Firm ground…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available  at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ascot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!