Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

3.25 Ascot : Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/8 (Soon tracked leader, challenged over 3f out, driven to lead over 2f out, soon ridden, drew readily clear inside final furlong to win by 3.25 lengths)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.35 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Master Diver @ 7/2 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4 A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £5531 to the winner…

Why?

This 4yr old gelding is a former winner at this trip and ran well enough last time out 5 weeks ago to warrant a second glance. That was five weeks ago when he blew the start in a one mile contest, but now drops to a trip he has won at, has been eased a pound in the weights and will today sport a visor in a bid to keep him a little more focused in the stalls. I’m thinking that if he gets out OK, then he’s well weighted here to win, despite being top rated/weight.

People often think that carrying the most weight will stop a horse from winning, but today’s stat (which is simpler to implement than it is to type/read) revolves around these top-rated beasts, because…

…since the start of 2014, in Class 4-6 Southwell A/W handicaps for 5-10 runners over 5f to 1m6f, males aged 3-9 who had the race’s top OR and last ran 21-75 days earlier are 46 from 197 (23.4% SR) for 101.8pts (+51.7% ROI)…

If you wanted to filter slightly, then…

  • those sent off shorter than 6/1 are 35/115 (30.4%) for 27.7pts (+24.1%)
  • previous distance winners are 27/104 (26%) for 102.4pts (+98.5%)
  • previous distance winners sent off shorter than 6/1 are 19/65 (29.2%) for 21pts (+32.2%)
  • and those dropping in trip by 0.5f to 1.5f are 8/37 (21.6%) for 11.85pts (+32%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Master Diver @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.35 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

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