Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

3.35 Southwell : Master Diver @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Slowly away and driven along, headway chasing leaders 5f out, ridden and not quicken 2f out, soon beaten and hung left)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Chica de la Noche @ 10/3 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old mare has finished in the first three home in 10 of her last 11 starts and her third place at this venue last time out, 4 weeks ago, is arguably the best piece of recent form on offer from any of the nine runners set to line up here.

She has won here in the past, she has 3 wins at this trip, she has 3 wins at Class 5, 3 wins off a mark in the 60’s and 3 wins in this type of field size, whilst her record with Adam Kirby in the saddle reads 1213, so conditions are far from alien to her today.

Adam himself is 7/28 (25% SR) for 10.18pts (+36.4% ROI) in Class 5/6 Lingfield Flat handicaps over 5-7 furlongs since 2011, whilst since the start of 2017 he has 8 winners from 25 (32% SR) for 8.54pts (+34.2% ROI) when riding for today’s trainer, Simon Dow. Most of this is admittedly on A/W surfaces, but does include…

  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 12.96pts (+68.2%) in handicaps
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 1.9pts (+11.9%) at Lingfield
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 15.17pts (+137.9%) at odds of 7/2 and shorter
  • 4/10 (40%) for 10.58pts (+105.8%) at Class 5
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.6pts (+51.1%) over the 7f trip

…from which…Dow + Kirby + Lingfield hcps + 7/2 and shorter = 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 9.31pts (+133% ROI), including a win on Chica de la Noche last year…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Chica de la Noche @ 10/3 BOG which was offered by SkyBet & Black Type at 6.22pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.10 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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