Stat of the Day, 4th May 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.10 Lingfield : Chica de la Noche @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, led over 2f out, soon pressed, kept on well to win by 0.75 lengths)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.20 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Mabs Cross @ 6/1 BOG

…in the 11-runner, Group 3, Palace House Stakes for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £34026 to the winner…

Why?

Well, I’m going to keep this really simple with a 5 yr old Mare who won this race last year and looks overpriced (IMO) to repeat the feat. I’d say she’s the price she is because there’s an AP O’Brien 3 yr old in the mix, as opposed to any doubts about her ability.

Based on her career to date and notwithstanding the short priced favourite, conditions really are set up for her to produce her best effort and it’s her suitability for today’s race conditions that tell me she shouldn’t be a 6/1 shot, as to date she has 5 wins and 4 places from 12 runs, including the following of relevance today…

  • 5w, 3p from 10 over 5f
  • 5w, 1p from 9 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 5w, 2pl from 8 for prizes below £35k
  • 5w, 2pl from 8 at odds shorter than 8/1
  • 5w, 2pl from 8 under jockey Paul Mulrennan
  • 2w, 3pl from 6 on good to firm
  • 1 from 1 at group 3
  • 1/1 here at Newmarket
  • and 1/1 over course and distance (last yrs race)

…whilst from the above… Paul Mulrennan + Mabs Cross + 5f + 6-11 runners + shorter than 8/1 + prize less than £35k = 5/5 (100% SR) for 18.34pts (+366.8% ROI)…

…steering us towards… a 1pt win bet on Mabs Cross @ 6/1 BOG which was offered by BetVictor & Unibet amongst others at 5.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.20 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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