Stat of the Day, 6th May 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

2.20 Newmarket : Mabs Cross @ 6/1 BOG WON at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway approaching final furlong, ridden and ran on strongly to lead final strides, winning by a neck)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.00 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Group 5, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m3f on Good ground worth £3249 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have an 8 yr old gelding looking for his fourth career success and he should relish some of today’s race conditions, because of his three previous successes, all three came on left handed tracks, all three came wearing a tongue tie, two were at Class 5 and two were on Good ground.

Aside from that we’re not really looking at masses of data this time, but trainer Tim Vaughan is 10 from 58 (17.9% SR) for 192.7pts (+344.2% ROI) and an A/E of 1.66 with his male Class 3-6 runners here at Warwick since 2010, and from those 58…

  • those racing at trips shorter than 3m1f are 8/46 (17.4%) for 196.4pts (+427.1%) : A/E = 1.81
  • hurdlers are 7/42 (16.6%) for 25.7pts (+61.1%) : A/E = 1.61
  • handicappers are 5/30 (16.6%) for 12.5pts (+41.7%) : A/E = 1.92
  • and those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 7/15 (46.7%) for 20.8pts (+138.7%) : A/E = 1.82

…from which…sub-7/1 hurdlers at trips shorter than 3m1f = 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.82pts (+185.2% ROI), including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 12.39pts (+412.9%) in handicaps…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG which was offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Sunday (Bet365 were even half a point bigger!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.00 Warwick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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