Stat of the Day, 7th May 2019

Monday’s pick was…

5.00 Warwick : Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG non-runner

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2mf on Good ground worth £5003 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 7yr old mare trained by the in-form Nicky Richards, whose runners are 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 51.9pts (+199.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, including 5 from 22 (22.7%) for 54.3pts (+246.9%) up in Scotland.

That success North of the border is no surprise/fluke, as I’m always keen to give at least a second glance to his runners in this area. The reason for this is that since the start of 2014, his handicappers are 62 from 351 (17.7% SR) for 47.9pts (+13.6% ROI) backed blindly running in Scotland and you could just stop there and have a very simple to implement system.

Of course, blind backing isn’t mine or Geegeez style if it comes to 60+ runners per year, so you could always apply some of the following filters that are in play today, as from those 351 runners…

  • Class 4 : 24/135 (17.8%) for 11.8pts (+8.8%)
  • 11-30 dslr : 30/123 (24.4%) for 92.5pts (+75.2%)
  • 7/8 yr olds : 30/121 (24.8%) for 53.1pts (+43.9%)
  • at Ayr : 23/121 (19%) for 20.6pts (+17%)
  • at 2mf to 2mf : 22/110 (20%) for 33.8pts (+30.7%)
  • and ridden by today’s jockey Daniel McMenamin : 4/19 (21%) for 8.44pts (+44.4%)

Now, if you wanted a composite micro combining the above elements, you’re not going to get too many qualifiers, due to the “tightness” of the parameters I use to qualify a selection, but if you wanted to combine age/class/days since run/track and distance, you could broaden the search to 5-8 yr olds over 2m4f to 3m1f in Class 4 contests at Ayr after a break of 16-45 days and this gives 7 winners from 16 (43.75% SR) for 13.54pts (+84.7% ROI)…

…and points to… a 1pt win bet on Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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