Stat of the Day, 8th May 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

2.30 Ayr : Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 6/1 (Chased leaders, mistake 3rd, effort 3 out, weakened next)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

8.35 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Jazz Legend @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on fibresand worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have an in-form 6 yr old gelding who still looks (to me anyway) well weighted to win despite seeming revitalised by a switch back to this unique surface 5 runs ago. The fact he handles the Fibresand so well is quite likely down to his breeding, but I’m not quite going down the USA-bred males at Southwell angle today : it’s one I’m sure you’re all already aware of.

Since the switch back to this track, he has 3 wins and a runner-up finish from five efforts, all at Class 6 and all over this 6f trip, finishing 211 in his last three and only raised 2lbs from the last of those almost five weeks ago, when making all under today’s jockey Liam Keniry. Those tactics are proven here over C&D, as shown on our pace/draw tabs on your racecard and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him attempt the same here today.

Stat-wise, I am going back to his breeding, but not the country of origin of the horse, more specifically his father, the sire of 90 (IIRC) runners to have graced UK/Irish tracks including a dozen UK Class 1 wins, Scat Daddy.

Since the start of 2017, offspring of Scat Daddy are 77 from 348 (22.1% SR) for profits of 87.5pts (+25.1% ROI) backed blindly, which is quite excellent, but of course, we don’t want so many bets from just one angle, so we’ll look at ways of reducing the number of bets without diminishing our returns and we can do this by backing…

  • those racing over 5, 6, 7 or 8 furlongs at 68/282 (24.1%) for 89.9pts (+31.9%)
  • those rated (OR) 65 or lower at 54/211 (25.6%) for 51.9pts (+24.6%)
  • those rested for 21-75 days at 28/126 (22.2%) for 52.7pts (+41.8%)
  • those running on the A/W at 26/107 (24.3%) for 33.3pts (+31.2%)
  • those racing at Class 5/6 at 27/93 (29%) for 62.7pts (+67.4%)
  • handicappers, who are 13/84 (15.5%) for 57.1pts (+67.9%)
  • Class 6 runners, who are 8/37 (21.6%) for 27.2pts (+73.5%)
  • or those racing here at Southwell, who are 4/9 (44.4%) for 18.8pts (+208.6%) admittedly skewed by Jazz Legend‘s recent form.

From the above, we can get to a point that shows Scat Daddy offspring + 2017-19 + 5/6/7/8 furlongs on the A/W off marks of 65 and lower after a break of 21-75 days = 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 25.3pts (+120.7% ROI) and these include of relevance today…

  • Class 5/6 : 7/17 (41.2%) for 26.4pts (+155.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.85pts (+165%)
  • in handicaps : 3/8 (37.5%) for 15.85pts (+198.2%)
  • and here at Southwell : 3/4 (75%) for 19.85pts (+496.3%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Jazz Legend @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.15pm on Tuesday, although SkyBet were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.35 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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