Stat of the Day, 9th May 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

8.35 Southwell : Jazz Legend @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Led over 4f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, lost 2nd and weakened inside final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

1.50 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner (was originally 13!), Class 2, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good To Soft worth £21165 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has won 2 of his last 5 contests and most probably needed the run when not disgraced in finishing fourth up at Musselburgh in this grade last time out, just under three weeks ago despite coming back from a layoff of 164 days.

Providing there’s no ill feeling from that run, I’d expect him to be challenging for honours today and improving an already decent career record that currently stands at 6 wins from 28 (21.4% SR) for 27.9pts (+99.6% ROI) and these include of relevance today…

  • 6 from 26 (23.1%) over 5f
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for trainer Tim Easterby (more on him shortly)
  • 5/19 (26.3%) at Class 2
  • 4/17 (23.5%) off a mark (OR) of 91-100
  • 6/14 (42.9%) when rested more than 1 but less than 3 weeks
  • 3/11 (27.3%) under jockey David Allan
  • 3/5 (60%) in May
  • 2/3 (66.6%) going left handed
  • 2/3 (66.6%) here at Chester
  • and 2/2 (100%) over course and distance

He does like to race prominently or even lead and getting drawn in stall 1 without too much apparent pace too close to him, he could well grab a soft uncontested lead and prove difficult to overhaul, giving him a great chance to also improve his trainer’s record at this venue, as…

Tim Easterby + Chester handicaps + last 3 seasons = 14/78 (18% SR) for 39.3pts (+50.4% ROI), including of note today…

  • at 6-20 dslr : 12/54 (22.2%) for 51.5pts (+95.3%)
  • 10-13 runners : 9/47 (19.2%) for 42.7pts (+90.8%)
  • sub-9/1 runners : 12/37 (32.4%) for 46pts (+124.3%)
  • over 5-6 furlongs : 8/37 (21.6%) for 45.7pts (+123.6%)
  • finished 2nd to 4th LTO : 10/34 (29.4%) for 48.9pts (+143.9%)
  • previous track winners : 7/33 (21.2%) for 31.6pts (+95.7%)
  • 1-6 previous distance wins : 8/29 (27.6%) for 47.3pts (+163.2%)
  • under jockey David Allan : 4/19 (21.1%) for 8.28pts (+43.6%)
  • and previous C&D winners : 4/16 (25%) for 11.11pts (+69.4%)

…whilst based upon the above…Sub-9/1 runners running in fields of 6-12 runners, 6-20 days after a top 5 finish LTO are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 34.6pts (+182.3% ROI), including 4 wins from 9 (44.4%) for 21.92pts (+243.6%) over 5/5.5 furlongs…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, although Betfred/Totesport were offering 3/1 (non-BOG until the morning). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.50 Chester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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