Stat of the Day, 10th May 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

1.50 Chester : Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 (Led, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and headed towards finish, beaten by a length)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

7.50 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Give It Some Teddy @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f on Good To Soft worth £6469 to the winner…

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has won three of his last five starts (four last season and one run this campaign so far) and comes here on a hat-trick after back to back (albeit 184 days apart) wins over 1m at Redcar under today’s jockey Duran Fentiman.

They ended last season by winning a 15-runner Class 2 handicap and opened this campaign with a win in a 16-runners Class 4 contest, so he’s not afraid of company and he’s certainly not likely to be out of his depth class-wise.

Those last two wins have taken his Flat career record to 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) including some impressive strike rates under similar conditions to today, such as…

  • 100% (2 from 2) under jockey Duran Fentiman
  • 60% (3/5) on tracks deemed as “flat”
  • 50% (2/4) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 41.7% (5/12) in fields of 11-16 runners
  • 40% (4/10) over 8-9 furlongs
  • 35.7% (5/14) for trainer Tim Easterby
  • 30.8% (4/13) in handicaps
  • and 27.3% (3/11) at Class 4 or better

…whilst running for Tim Easterby in 11-16 runner Flat handicaps over 8-9f = 4/8 (50% SR) for 54.6pts (+682.2% ROI)…

It’s also worth noting that Tim Easterby’s LTO winners sent off at 9/1 or shorter in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps are 47 from 203 (23.2% SR) for 31.4pts (+15.4% ROI) backed blindly since 2013, but I obviously can’t just leave it there, because the following are at play today…

  • 2-5 yr olds are 44/182 (24.2%) for 40pts (+22%)
  • over 6-10 furlongs : 32/114 (28.1%) for 66pts (+57.9%)
  • 2016-19 = 31/124 (25%) for 24.6pts (+19.8%)
  • April-June = 20/69 (29%) for 44.1pts (+63.9%)
  • ridden by Duran Fentiman : 9/31 (29%) for 30.4pts (+97.9%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 9/35 (25.7%) for 16.2pts (+46.3%)

…and 2-5 yr olds over 6-10f in April-June since the start of 2016 are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 16.6pts (+79.2% ROI) with Duran Fentiman riding 2 winners from 4 (50%) for 17.16pts profit at an ROI of some 429%…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Give It Some Teddy @ 3/1 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.50pm on Thursday, although Bet365 were offering 10/3 BOG for those able/quick enough to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.50 Nottingham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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