Stat of the Day, 10th May 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

1.50 Chester : Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 (Led, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and headed towards finish, beaten by a length)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

7.50 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Give It Some Teddy @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f on Good To Soft worth £6469 to the winner…


This 5yr old gelding has won three of his last five starts (four last season and one run this campaign so far) and comes here on a hat-trick after back to back (albeit 184 days apart) wins over 1m at Redcar under today’s jockey Duran Fentiman.

They ended last season by winning a 15-runner Class 2 handicap and opened this campaign with a win in a 16-runners Class 4 contest, so he’s not afraid of company and he’s certainly not likely to be out of his depth class-wise.

Those last two wins have taken his Flat career record to 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) including some impressive strike rates under similar conditions to today, such as…

  • 100% (2 from 2) under jockey Duran Fentiman
  • 60% (3/5) on tracks deemed as “flat”
  • 50% (2/4) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 41.7% (5/12) in fields of 11-16 runners
  • 40% (4/10) over 8-9 furlongs
  • 35.7% (5/14) for trainer Tim Easterby
  • 30.8% (4/13) in handicaps
  • and 27.3% (3/11) at Class 4 or better

…whilst running for Tim Easterby in 11-16 runner Flat handicaps over 8-9f = 4/8 (50% SR) for 54.6pts (+682.2% ROI)…

It’s also worth noting that Tim Easterby’s LTO winners sent off at 9/1 or shorter in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps are 47 from 203 (23.2% SR) for 31.4pts (+15.4% ROI) backed blindly since 2013, but I obviously can’t just leave it there, because the following are at play today…

  • 2-5 yr olds are 44/182 (24.2%) for 40pts (+22%)
  • over 6-10 furlongs : 32/114 (28.1%) for 66pts (+57.9%)
  • 2016-19 = 31/124 (25%) for 24.6pts (+19.8%)
  • April-June = 20/69 (29%) for 44.1pts (+63.9%)
  • ridden by Duran Fentiman : 9/31 (29%) for 30.4pts (+97.9%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 9/35 (25.7%) for 16.2pts (+46.3%)

…and 2-5 yr olds over 6-10f in April-June since the start of 2016 are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 16.6pts (+79.2% ROI) with Duran Fentiman riding 2 winners from 4 (50%) for 17.16pts profit at an ROI of some 429%…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Give It Some Teddy @ 3/1 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.50pm on Thursday, although Bet365 were offering 10/3 BOG for those able/quick enough to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.50 Nottingham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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