Stat of the Day, 11th May 2019

Friday’s pick was…

7.50 Nottingham : Give It Some Teddy @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/2 (Mid-division, effort over 2f out, one pace and no impression over 1f out)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

5.55 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Good worth £9747 to the winner…

Why?

Well, at the end of what has been a trying/tough week, I’m siding with an in-form mare who was an impressive winner from out of the handicap last time around.

In fact, this 6yr old mare has finished 22121 in her last five starts and won a Class 2 contest at Cheltenham when last seen 23 days ago, despite being 7lbs out of the handicap. I’d expect her to relish the extra yardage here today and a drop in class should also help.

She’s by Canford Cliffs, whose jumpers are 30 from 196 (15.3% SR) for 25.7pts (+13.1% ROI) to date and these include of relevance today…

  • at trips of 2m to 2m5f : 28/179 (15.5%) for 35pts (+19.6%)
  • on Good ground : 19/96 (19.8%) for 22.1pts (+23%)
  • after a break of 21-30 days : 6/36 (16.6%) for 21pts (+58.4%)
  • and at Class 3 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 5.14pts (+28.5%)

…whilst those racing over 2m to 2m5f on Good ground at Class 3 are 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 7.86pts (+60.4% ROI), with 4 winners from 7 (57.1%) for 6.21pts (+88.7%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days.

It’s also worth noting that since 2014, handicap chasers trained by Michael Scudamore who won a handicap chase LTO in the previous 30 days are 9 from 32 (28.1% SR) for 3.7pts (+11.6% ROI), including…

  • those sent off shorter than 4/1 : 8/19 (42.1%) for 6.2pts (32.6%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 7/16 (43.75%) for 15.43pts (+96.4%)
  • females are 5/14 (35.7%) for 6.75pts (+48.2%)
  • 21-30 days since last run : 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.97pts (+49.8%)
  • on Good ground : 3/12 (25%) for 5.8pts (48.3%)
  • and at Class 3 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.35pts (+15%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG which was generally available at 7.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.55 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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