Stat of the Day, 13th May 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?…

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I’m backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he’s a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which…

• today’s jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
• Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
• and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain’s Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain’s Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn’t want to follow them blindly, here is “just” a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course…

• males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
• those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
• over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
• in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
• here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
• at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
• ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
• up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
• 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
• at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
• LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
• and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

…from which…males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes…

• 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
• 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
• 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
• and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh…

…steering us towards… a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!