Tuesday’s pick was…
7.10 Southwell : The Drone @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead after 8th, driven to lead after 3 out, ridden after next, idled flat, just held on by a short head)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG
…in an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner…
This 4 yr old gelding has been getting better with experience during his short (just 6 runs for 3 different trainers so far!) racing career and has finished third (beaten by 4L), 2nd (beaten by a neck) and first in his last three outings, the last two of which were his only two runs for today’s trainer and also today’s jockey.
The LTO win came here at Bath 9 days ago at the same class, course, distance and going as today and with the same jockey (Shane Kelly) on board, the only difference now is a 5lb rise in weight for that win, but that might not be enough to anchor him just yet and like yesterday, this horse cropped up on a few interconnecting angles I’ve got saved, so let’s look at the data, shall we?
1. Trainer John O’Shea’s handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO are 27 from 106 (25.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+28.1% ROI) profit if backed blindly since the start of 2015, from which the following are particularly relevant today…
- at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 23/92 (25%) for 31.3pts (+34%)
- on the Flat : 16/62 (25.8%) for 23.7pts (+38.3%)
- on the Flat at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 16/60 (26.7%) for 25.7pts (+42.9%)
- LTO winners : 19/48 (39.6%) for 45.8pts (+95.4%)
- LTO winners now running at 1m5f and shorter : 15/38 (39.5%) for 43.3pts (+114%)
- LTO winners now running on the Flat : 10/24 (41.7%) for 34.6pts (+144.2%)
- and LTO winners now running on the Flat at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 10/23 (43.5%) for 35.6pts (+154.8%)
2. Plus, since 2013, John’s horses who were turned out after less than 3 weeks rest following a class & distance win LTO are 11 from 20 (55% SR) for 35.3pts (+176.4% ROI) with those running in the May-November period winning 9 of 15 (60%) for 30.9pts (+205.7%)
3. And finally for today, more generally since 2014 in UK Class 5 Flat handicaps, horses priced at 5/1 and shorter (where we’ll surely be today) who won at the same class, course and distance LTO 6-15 days earlier went on to win again on 44 of 114 (38.6% SR) occasions generating 43.1pts profit at an ROI of 37.8%, from which…
- those raised 3-10lbs for the win are 36/82 (43.9%) for 43.4pts (+52.9%)
- and those raised 3-10lbs for the win to new mark of 65-80 are 32/62 (51.6%) for 46.5pts (+75%)…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.15pm on Tuesday with plenty of 5/2 non-BOG available, whilst Bet365 were as big as 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!