Stat of the Day, 16th May 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

7.25 Bath : Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.10 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo Fillies over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £12450 to the winner…

Why?

Just three runs so far for this one, but she did win LTO on her seasonal re-appearance at Lingfield 13 days ago, when stepped up from 7f to 1m2f for the first time. She was coming off the back of an 8-month break that day, so providing there are no ill effects from that race, I’d expect her to come on for having had the run.

Stat-wise, I’m going to keep it relatively simple today with just one point of attack, namely…

trainer Eve Johnson Houghton’s Class 2-4 handicappers who won LTO 3-30 days earlier and now run at 6-11 furlongs at odds shorter than 12/1 are 19/80 (23.75% SR) for 50.4pts (+63% ROI) since 2010, and with today’s contest in mind, this includes…

  • over the last six seasons : 15/65 (23.1%) for 28.41pts (+43.7%)
  • with “Good” in the official going : 12/53 (22.6%) for 26.83pts (+50.6%)
  • up in class : 12/49 (24.5%) for 42.33pts (+86.4%)
  • within 75 miles of the yard : 14/41 (34.2%) for 48.5pts (+118.3%)
  • in 3yo only races : 5/22 (2.7%) for 18.35pts (+83.4%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 6/20 (30%) for 12.38pts (+61.9%)
  • ridden by Charlie Bishop : 5/16 (31.25%) for 4.76pts (+29.75%)

…whilst from the above… last 6 seasons + “Good” in official going + up in class + less than 60 miles from “home” = 6/12 (50% SR) for 30.32pts (+252.7% ROI) and although that’s a small sample size, it’s not easy to ignore and does also interestingly contain…

  • 6-20 days since last run/win : 5/9 (55.6%) for 30.73pts (+341.4%)
  • over 1m2f : 4/7 (57.1%) for 18.37pts (+262.4%)
  • over 1m2f at 6-20dslr : 3/5 (60%) for 17.78pts (+355.6%)
  • Charlie Bishop : 3/5 960%) for 8.74pts (+174.8%)
  • at 6-20dslr with Charlie Bishop : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.15pts (+271.6%)
  • and with Charlie Bishop at 1m2f : 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.14pts (+71.2%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Wednesday, whilst Bet365 were offering 5/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.10 Salisbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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