Stat of the Day, 17th May 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

2.10 Salisbury : Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.75 lengths)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gumball @ 9/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Good ground worth £18675 to the winner…

Why?…

This 5 yr old gelding was 3 from 9 over hurdles before switching to “level ground” in late February this year and is now 3 from 3 on the Flat/AW after 2 wins over 1m4f at Class 5, before landing a similar Class 3, 1m6f contest to today’s when last seen 19 days ago at Salisbury, clear by 2 lengths and looking comfortable.

With regards to today’s challenge, he is…

• 6 from 9 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
• 6 from 6 at Class 3 or below
• 3 from 4 going right handed
• 2 wins and a place from 3 in 2m hurdle contests, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue
• 2 from 3 on Good ground
• and 2 from 2 under today’s jockey Oisin Murphy

He is trained by Philip Hobbs, best known for his NH runners, of course, but has dabbled successfully in the past 10 years with hurdlers running on the Flat/AW and over the last two years, his Flat/AW runners are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 8.36pts (+92.4% ROI) at trips of 1m4f to 1m6f, all of them male, including…

• 5 from 7 at 4/1 and shorter
• 4 from 7 in the February to June period
• and 4 from 6 with 5 yr olds

And more generally, since 2014, in Flat handicaps over 2m or shorter, horses racing off the back of three consecutive wins are 104/502 (20.7% SR) for 96.7pts (+19.3% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today…

• last 3 runs/wins all “on the level” : 99/482 (20.5%) for 85.8pts (+17.8%)
• males are 78/378 (20.6%) for 101.3pts (+26.8%)
• from March to August : 83/375 (22.1%) for 124.3pts (+33.2%)
• 16-25 dslr : 26/125 (20.8%) for 55.4pts (+44.3%)
• 5 yr olds are 17/75 (22.7%) for 79.7pts (+106.3%)
• over 1m6f to 2m : 15/55 (27.3%) for 27.9pts (+50.7%)
• and this year alone : 7/11 (63.6%) for 18.15pts (+165%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Gumball @ 9/4 BOG which was quite widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.45 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!