Stat of the Day, 18th May 2019

Friday’s pick was…

3.45 Newmarket : Gumball  @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 6/5 (Led, pushed along and headed 3f out, tracked leader, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

5.40 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3398 to the winner…


This 4 yr old gelding was a winner last time out just 7 days when a pretty comfortable victor over course and distance in this grade a week ago under today’s jockey Rowan Scott, who once again claims 3lbs.

And now, the numbers…

1. This runner has 2 wins and a place from 8 runs to date and they include of relevance today…

  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at Class 6
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 at 6f
  • 1 win, 1 place here at Thirsk
  • 1 from 1 under Scott Rowan

2. Trainer Nigel Tinkler’s LTO winners are 16 from 80 (20% SR) for 26.6pts (+33.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps since 2009, when turned back out after less than three week’s rest and these include…

  • 9/29 (31%) for 22.84pts (+78.8%) over the last two seasons
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 42pts (+174.9%) over 6f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 17.9pts (+179%) in May
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 8.08pts (+202%)

3. Whilst Nigel’s record here at Thirsk in Flat handicaps since the start of 2017 season stands at 6 from 18 (33.3% SR) for 20.57pts (+114.3% ROI) with horses sent off shorter than 12/1, from which…

  • over this 6f C&D : 5/15 (33.3%) for 19.8pts (+132%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.32pts (+112%)
  • at Class 6 : 4/10 (40%) for 19.62pts (+196.2%)
  • at 5/1 and shorter : 5/7 (71.4%) for 17.31pts (+247.3%)
  • on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 15.45pts (+386.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/2 (100%) for 6.94pts (+347%)

4. And finally, since 2010 in Class 6 Flat handicaps, horses who won at the same class, track and trip LTO 4-10 days earlier are 51 from 152 (33.6%) for 35.2pts (+23.2% ROI), including…

  • at 7/1 and shorter : 51/135 (37.8%) for 52.2pts (+38.7%)
  • at trips shorter than a mile : 28/80 (35%) for 28.7pts (+35.9%)
  • and at 7/1 and shorter over trips shorter than a mile : 28/67 (41.8%) for 41.7pts (+62.2%), including 8 wins from 16 (50% SR) for 15.72pts (+98.25% ROI) over the last two seasons…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG which was available BetVictor, Betfair & Betway at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.40 Thirsk

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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