Stat of the Day, 20th May 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

5.40 Thirsk : Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, went 2nd 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, lost 2nd and stayed on same pace, been by half a length)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

3.15 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £7439 to the winner…

Why?…

Well, in all honesty, this 5 yr old gelding hasn’t actually covered himself in glory during seven consecutive defeats in a Class 4 handicap at Pontefract in early July of last year, but there are mitigating circumstances.

He won that day off a mark of 86, but has since been running at Classes 2 & 3 off marks of 92 to 94, before finally getting some relief from the handicapper last time out when eased down to 88. He now drops back into Class 4 company for the first time since that last win and is now weighted a pound below that last winning mark, so now should be the time to at least give him a second glance.

Career stats aren’t the best with just 3 wins from 24 on the Flat so far, but those 3 wins are relevant to today’s conditions, as…

• All 3 were achieved over 1m to 1m1f, all with Danny Tudhope in the saddle, all off marks from 78-86 and all withing a 6 week period of the year from mid-April to early July.
• 2 were at Class 4, 2 were at odds of 3/1 or shorter and 2 were in fields of 5-8 runners

In fact…in fields of 5-8 runners off a mark of 78-86 with Danny in the saddle during that 6-week time frame, Lamloom is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 8.42pts (+93.6% ROI), including…

• 2/5 (40%) for 9.43pts (+188.5%) at Class 4
• 2/5 (40%) for 0.5pts (+10%) shorter than 4/1
• and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

He is trained by David O’Meara whose runners are 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 42.83pts (+70.2% ROI) over the last fortnight, including 2 winners and a place from 4 at Ripon yesterday.

Jockey Danny Tudhope is also in good touch, winning 25 of 105 (23.8% SR) for 50.39pts (+48% ROI) over the last 30 days…

…whilst together the trainer/jockey partnership is 15/54 (27.8%) for 59.78pts (+110.7%) in that same 30 day period.

Their success together isn’t really too surprising and many people (myself included) have written plenty about this partnership, but as you all know by now, I’m not one for following an angle blindly, so with this duo, my first instinct is to look for the on the Flat at trips of 5f to 1m2f and this gives us 287 winners from 1697 runners (16.9% SR) for 316pts (+18.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012.

So that I’m not accused of using old data to prop up my pick, I’ll just focus on those qualifying from that criteria since the start of the 2017 campaign and that gives us 85 winners from 519 (16.4% SR) and 203.9pts of profit at a very healthy ROI of 39.4%, not counting yesterday’s 5/1 winner from just two runners.

This angle actually gives us two possibles for today (as does some of the data below), but I prefer Lamloom‘s chances to those of Star Shield who is currently 3/1 BOG in the 5.15 race at this venue, and further analysis of those 519 runners shows that…

• those rated (OR) 75-94 are 36/213 (16.9%) for 39.3pts (+18.5%)
• those dropped 1-5lbs by the assessor are 28/182 (15.4%) for 39.6pts (+21.8%)
• those last seen 4-15 days earlier are 35/177 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+42.2%)
• over trips of 7.5f to 8.5f : 27/152 (17.8%) for 46.3pts (+30.5%)
• and in May : 25/134 (18.7%) for 142.8pts (+106.5%)

…whilst based upon the above…during March to May over 6f to 10f off marks of 75-94, but 1-5lbs lower than LTO = 10 from 39 (25.6% SR) for 104pts (+266.7% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.o5pm on Sunday, although you could get an extra quarter point from Betfair/Paddy Power, but they don’t go BOG until 8.00am on raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Carlisle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!