Stat of the Day, 21st May 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.15 Carlisle : Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Soon led, driven and headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression in 4th inside final furlong)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

3.05 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3429 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old is making just a fifth start today, with little/no data to work from, so I’ll focus on jockey and trainer, who both do very well at this quirky venue.

We’ll start with our jockey, Adam Kirby, whose record here over the last four (and a bit, ie since April 2015) seasons stands at 23 winners from 79 (29.1% SR) generating 45.4pts of level stakes profit at an excellent ROI of some 57.5% and these include of relevance today…

  • at Class 6 : 10/30 (33.3%) for 28.5pts (+95.1%)
  • over 7f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.9pts (+85.7%)
  • and in May : 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.4pts (+85.7%)…

…whilst trainer Clive Cox hasn’t been as active as Adam here in recent years but actually has better figures than the jockey with 10 winners from 29 (34.5% SR) producing 17.6pts at an ROI of 60.5% backed blindly since 2014, from which…

  • those sent off at 8/1 or shorter are 10/23 (43.5%) for 23.6pts (+102.6%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 8/17 (47.1%) for 17.06pts (+100.3%)
  • on ground deemed quicker than Good : 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.11pts (+94.1%)
  • runners with less than 3 weeks rest are 5/11 (45.5%) for 18.04pts (+164%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.83pts (+110.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.4pts (+42.5%)
  • and in May : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.06pts (+129.5%)

…and from the above… Cox + Kirby + Brighton + Good to Firm = 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 7.62pts (+84.7% ROI), including 3 from 6 with runners who raced less than 25 days earlier, 2 from 4 at Class 6, 1 from 2 over the 7f C&D and 1 from 1 in May…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG which available from BetVictor & Hills (latter non-BOG until midnight) at 6.o5pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.05 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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