Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.05 Brighton : Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner…


Seven of today’s ten runners are returning from breaks of six months or more and with quick ground expected, some of them might well get found out for fitness here. I’ve taken a price that looked (IMO at least) to represent excellent value in taking on a short-priced (as low as 13/8 when I made my selection) favourite who steps up in both trip and class for a handicap debut off a mark (81) that might be on the high side, especially after 10 months away from the track.

Our boy has been around the block a few times and it’s admittedly been a while since he last won and he’s clearly not the force of old, but we should remember that was a winner at Class 2 off a mark of 91 last year and now runs off a career low mark. He is 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 24.1pts (+114.8% ROI) over 7f on the Flat including 3 from 5 (60%) for 15.94pts (+318.8%) in cheekpieces and hails from a yard with a decent record at this venue…

…as Stuart Williams-trained handicappers sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 15 from 57 (26.3% SR) for 24.6pts (+43.1% ROI) over the past five seasons here at Yarmouth, from which…

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 12/42 (28.6%) for 22.2pts (+52.8%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 are 10/31 (32.3%) for 31.3pts (+100.9%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 with a run in the previous 25 days are 8/22 (36.4%) for 26.2pts (+119%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.3pts (+180.6%) : all rated 70-85
  • and at Class 4 with a run in the previous 25 days : 5/10 (50%) for 22.33pts (+223.3%) : all rated 70-85

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Tuesday and Bet365 were a half point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.45 Yarmouth

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Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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