Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.45 Yarmouth : Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

8.40 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Greenside @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £9338 to the winner…

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding is a former Class 2 winner and comes here off the back of a pretty comfortable 2 lengths win at Windsor 17 days ago under today’s jockey Harry Bentley in a similar Class 3, 1m handicap on Good ground to today’s contest.

With regards to today’s race, his career stats include…

  • 5 wins, 2 places from 14 over a mile (4w, 2pl from 10 on turf)
  • 3 from 8 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 4 from 7 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 from 6 as favourite
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in May/June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Sandown
  • and 1 from 2 on Good ground.

As for the race itself, the race trends for the last 22 runnings (since 1997) of the Whitsun Cup include the following of relevance today…

  • all 22 winners had raced 0-3 times that season prior to the race
  • 17 had a top 4 finish LTO
  • 16 had raced in the previous 30 days
  • 11 were sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 10 were rated (OR) 90-94
  • 10 were favourites
  • and 8 came out of stalls 3 or 4

And finally for today, a quick look at how LTO winners trained by Henry Candy fared next time out tells me that those sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 in Flat handicaps are 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 14.7pts (+36.7% ROI) since 2015 of these include of note today…

  • in races worth £3k to £10k : 10/32 (31.25%) for 12.44pts (+38.9%)
  • in May/June : 5/10 (50%) for 13.59pts (+135.9%)
  • those who raced/won 15-20 days earlier : 5/10 (50%) for 12.44pts (+124.4%)
  • here at Sandown : 2/5 (40%) for 2.88pts (+57.6%)
  • and those ridden by Harry Bentley are 3 from 3 (100%) for 8.32pts (+277.3%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Greenside @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Sky, Unibet, Hills & BlackType (last two go BOG on raceday) at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.40 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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