Stat of the Day, 24th May 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

8.40 Sandown : Greenside @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn due to change in going)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

8.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG

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…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner… 

Why?

Well, this Emma Lavelle-trained 6 yr old mare has already won twice and placed once from just five starts and comes here off the back of winning a Class 4 hurdle at Chepstow last time out, 32 days ago.

In addition to her form displayed so far, she also cropped on several of my stored angles, here are just a handful of them…

1. In UK handicap hurdles since 2013, horses who won a Novice hurdle LTO 11-90 days earlier are 220/1200 (18.3% SR) for 109.2pts (+9.1% ROI), including…

  • Class 3/4 : 151/730 (20.7%) for 100.1pts (+13.7%)
  • females : 42/223 (18.8%) for 47.5pts (+21.3%)
  • and Class 4 females are 18/97 (18.6%) for 13.54pts (+14%)

2. Emma Lavelle + Class 4/5 hurdlers + 2016-19 = 38/240 (15.8% SR) for 37.9pts (+15.8% ROI), from which…

  • at 2m6f and shorter : 34/201 (16.9%) for 55.1pts (+27.4%)
  • in handicaps : 16/89 (18%) for 17.4pts (+19.5%)
  • in hcps @ 2m6f and shorter : 14/60 (23.3%) for 32.6pts (+54.3%)

3. Emma’s LTO winners sent off at 2/1 to 17/2 in 2016-19, some 21-60 days after that win are 20/62 (32.3% SR) for 51.8pts (+84.9% ROI), amongst which…

  • hurdlers : 16/33 (48.5%) for 64.2pts (+194.5%)
  • at 2m4.5f to 3m1f : 16/34 (47.1%) for 56.7pts (+166.7%)
  • hurdlers at 2m4.5f to 3m1f : 14/21 (66.7%) for 62.6pts (+297.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 10/25 (40%) for 39.3pts (+157.2%)
  • ridden by Leighton Aspell : 3/5 (60%) for 9.8pts (+196%)

4. Here at Worcester, Emma’s runners are 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+60.8% ROI) since 2016 and these include…

  • at 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115%)
  • handicappers are 7/26 (26.9%) for 28.1pts (+108.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 25.5pts (+141.9%)
  • and C4 hcps @ 5/1 and shorter = 3/4 (75%) for 11.25pts (+281.1%)

5. And finally for today, Emma’s handicap hurdle debutants sent off at 2/1 to 11/1 since 2016 are 8/25 (32% SR) for 25pts (+100% ROI), from which…

  • at 2m3f to 2m5.5f : 7/17 (41.2%) for 29.86pts (+175.7%)
  • 6 yr olds : 6/20 930%) for 15.24pts (+76.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 20.65pts (+206.5%)
  • females : 3/3 (100%) for 21.72pts (+724%)
  • at Worcester : 1/2 (50%) for 3.94pts (+197%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.40 Worcester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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