Stat of the Day, 25th May 2019

Friday’s pick was…

8.40 Worcester : Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, outpaced after 3 out, never able to challenge, weakened last)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

7.35 Ffos Las:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner… 

Why?

Trainer Peter Bowen’s chasers are 31/101 (30.7% SR) for 38.7pts (+38.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of evens to 13/2 here at Ffos Las since 2o12 and these include…

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 29/89 (32.6%) for 41pts (+46%)
  • at 4 to 60 days since last run : 27/78 (34.6%) for 47.5pts (+60.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 20/65 (30.8%) for 29.6pts (+45.5%)
  • ridden by Sean Bowen : 16/44 (36.4%) for 25.6pts (+58.2%)
  • in May : 7/16 (43.75%) for 11.2pts (+69.9%)
  • 6 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 6.85pts (+52.7%)

…and when Sean Bowen has ridden a Class 4 runner over 2m to 3m, 4 to 60 after the horse last ran = 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 15pts at an ROI of 83.2%.

More generally in “Summer Jumps” ie handicap chases during May to September, Peter Bowen has 33 winners from 148 (22.3% SR) for profits of 96.6pts (+65.3% ROI) since the start of May 2017, from which…

  • Sean Bowen is 26/99 (26.3%) for 54.5pts (+55%)
  • those turned out 11-45 days after their last run are 23/91 (25.3%) for 51.2pts (+56.2%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 18/64 (28.1%) for 94.4pts (+147.6%)

…whilst Sean Bowen on Class 4 runners, 11-45 days after their last run = 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 23.5pts (+94% ROI) profit…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.35 Ffos Las

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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