Stat of the Day, 28th May 2019

Monday’s pick was…

4.45 Redcar : Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, some headway on outside under pressure over 2f out, weakened 2f out)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

8.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Fly True @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner…


This 6yr old mare has won three of her last seven outings, including 3 from 5 here at Southwell, culminating in a class, course and distance win LTO under today’s jockey 37 days ago.

This means that her A/W handicap record now includes…

  • 4/13 at Class 6
  • 3/10 under jockey Nicky Mackay
  • 3/9 for trainer Ivan Furtado
  • 3/7 here at Southwell
  • 3/7 at 31-60 days off track
  • 2/4 as a 6 yr old
  • 2/2 over 7f
  • 2/2 over course and distance

In addition to her own obvious suitability for the task ahead, trainer Ivan Furtado does well here too, especially in A/W handicaps with runners in the 2/1 to 10/1 bracket, as they are 14 from 67 (20.9% SR) for 40.5pts (+60.5% ROI) since the start of 2016 and with today’s race in mind, this includes…

  • 13/54 (24.1%) for 44.7pts (+82.7%) at 6-45 days off track
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 42.9pts (+104.7%) in fields of 9-14 runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 48.1pts (+114.4%) from horses aged 5 and over
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 35.3pts (+100.1%) at Class 6
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 42.5pts (+202.3%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 7/25 (28%) for 34.7pts (+138.8%) from his female runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 31.9pts (+199.1%) at 26-45 days off track
  • 3/5 (60%) for 27.46pts (+549.2%) under jockey Nicky Mackay
  • and 3/10 from LTO winners (30%) for 10.03pts (+100.3%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fly True @ 7/2 BOG which was available from over half a dozen firms at 6.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.10 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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