Tuesday’s pick was…
8.10 Southwell : Fly True @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn under vet’s advice)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG
…in a 10-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m5½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner…
This 7 yr old gelding was a runner-up LTO 22 days ago when only beaten by a length over 2m5f when staying on well. He had a claimer taking 3lbs off his mark of 78 that day and although he has been raised to 81 for that effort, he now has a 7lb claimer on board. With him now effectively being a pound better off and having the extra half furlong to stay, that could well be just enough to get him over the line for us today.
Stat-wise, I’m drawn to him for a couple of reasons, neither with masses of data but with good strike rates and ROI, as we’d like to see!
So, I’ll kick off with trainer Mark Gillard’s record in a micro-system I simply named “Summer Chasers” ie UK handicap chases from May to September inclusive. Since 2013, Mark’s runners in such events are 7 from 24 (29.2% SR) for 24.6pts (+102.6% ROI) when priced in the 2/1 to 9/1 range (where I do most of my betting nowadays) and with today’s race in mind, here’s how he got those seven winners…
- males are 7/23 (30.4%) for 25.6pts (+111.4%)
- those rested for more than 10 days are 6/18 (33.3%) for 26.4pts (+146.6%)
- those rated (OR) 75-85 are 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.1pts (+216.2%)
- at Class 5 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 6.72pts (+35.4%)
- here at Newton Abbot : 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.4pts (+133.9%)
- LTO runners-up are 3/4 (75%) for 22.3pts (+557.1%)
- in May : 3/9 (33.3%) for 18.2pts (+202.5%)
- and over this 2m5½f trip : 2/4 (50%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)
…and males resting for more than 10 days ahead of running at Class 5 off a mark of 75-85 are 3/6 (50% SR) for 12.2pts (+203.5%)…
The above 4 from 13 figure here at Newton Abbot wasn’t too surprising, as Mark’s handicap chasers sent off shorter than 10/1 at this track are 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 27.8pts (+132.4% ROI) overall and these include…
- 7/20 (35%) for 28.8pts (+144%) from male runners
- 5/9 (55.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.9%) over this 2m5½f course and distance
- 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.3pts (+217.7%) from April to June
- 4/4 (100%) for 27.2pts (+680%) from those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO
- 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.21pts (+28.1%) at Class 5
- and 2 from 2 (100%) for 20.9pts (+1045%) from LTO runners-up
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!