Stat of the Day, 29th May 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

8.10 Southwell : Fly True @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn under vet’s advice)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

2.00 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m5½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner-up LTO 22 days ago when only beaten by a length over 2m5f when staying on well. He had a claimer taking 3lbs off his mark of 78 that day and although he has been raised to 81 for that effort, he now has a 7lb claimer on board. With him now effectively being a pound better off and having the extra half furlong to stay, that could well be just enough to get him over the line for us today.

Stat-wise, I’m drawn to him for a couple of reasons, neither with masses of data but with good strike rates and ROI, as we’d like to see!

So, I’ll kick off with trainer Mark Gillard’s record in a micro-system I simply named “Summer Chasers” ie UK handicap chases from May to September inclusive. Since 2013, Mark’s runners in such events are 7 from 24 (29.2% SR) for 24.6pts (+102.6% ROI) when priced in the 2/1 to 9/1 range (where I do most of my betting nowadays) and with today’s race in mind, here’s how he got those seven winners…

  • males are 7/23 (30.4%) for 25.6pts (+111.4%)
  • those rested for more than 10 days are 6/18 (33.3%) for 26.4pts (+146.6%)
  • those rated (OR) 75-85 are 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.1pts (+216.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 6.72pts (+35.4%)
  • here at Newton Abbot : 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.4pts (+133.9%)
  • LTO runners-up are 3/4 (75%) for 22.3pts (+557.1%)
  • in May : 3/9 (33.3%) for 18.2pts (+202.5%)
  • and over this 2m5½f trip : 2/4 (50%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)

…and males resting for more than 10 days ahead of running at Class 5 off a mark of 75-85 are 3/6 (50% SR) for 12.2pts (+203.5%)…

The above 4 from 13 figure here at Newton Abbot wasn’t too surprising, as Mark’s handicap chasers sent off shorter than 10/1 at this track are 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 27.8pts (+132.4% ROI) overall and these include…

  • 7/20 (35%) for 28.8pts (+144%) from male runners
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.9%) over this 2m5½f course and distance
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.3pts (+217.7%) from April to June
  • 4/4 (100%) for 27.2pts (+680%) from those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.21pts (+28.1%) at Class 5
  • and 2 from 2 (100%) for 20.9pts (+1045%) from LTO runners-up

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.00 Newton Abbot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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