Stat of the Day, 30th May 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

2.00 Newton Abbot : Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Mid-division, dropped towards rear 7th, ridden to chase clear leaders after 5 out, stayed on to take modest 3rd after last, no chance with front pair)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

8.20 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Hats Off To Larry @ 9/4 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3f on Good to Soft ground worth £7698 to the winner… 


This 5 yr old gelding has won four of seven starts on the Flat over the past twelve months and defied a 6-month layoff when winning at Chester five days ago over 1m2.5f. He’s up 5lbs for that win, but with 7lb claimer Scott MCullagh now in the saddle, he’s effectively 2lbs better off and Scott did ride him to victory at Windsor last August on the only previous occasion they’ve teamed up.

Trainer Mick Channon doesn’t send many runners up to Carlisle (perhaps the near 600-mile trip is a factor?), but those that have come here and have been deemed by the market to at least have a chance have fared pretty well.

Since 2008, Mick’s visitors to Carlisle that have been sent off at 8/1 or shorter have won 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.8pts (+46.7% ROI) and so that I’m not leaning on old data to prop up my pick, the last four seasons show 7 winners from 21 (33.3% SR) for 11.35pts (+54% ROI), from which the following are relevant today…

  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.21pts (+83.6%)
  • for prizes in excess of £4,000 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.62pts (+114.7%)
  • males are 4/12 (33.3%) for 9.14pts (+76.2%)
  • those aged 5 and over : 3/5 (60%) for 10.68pts (+213.6%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.62pts (+107.8%)
  • in handicaps : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.75pts (+108.3%)
  • LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.98pts (+232.7%)
  • and those who ran in the previous 10 days are 2/4 (50%) for 6.96pts (+174%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Hats Off To Larry @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.20 Carlisle

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Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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