Stat of the Day, 31st May 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

8.20 Carlisle : Hats Off To Larry @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Held up in mid-division, headway 3f out, chased winner and edged right over 1f out, edged right inside final furlong, kept on but couldn’t catch winner who got first run)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

5.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Tha’ir @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f  on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding has a win and two places from his last three runs (all here at Wolverhampton over different distances) and it’s fair to say that he saves his best for this venue with 4 wins and 5 further places from just 13 appearances here with a 30.8% win strike rate generating profits of 4.34pts at an ROI of 33.4%, including…

  • after less than 3 weeks rest : 4/6 (66.6%) for 11.34pts (+189%)
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 4/10 (40%) for 7.34pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.03pts (+100.5%)
  • and in handicaps : 2/8 (25%) for 5.92pts (+74%)

…whilst at 8/1 and shorter within three weeks of his last run = 4/8 (50% SR) for 9.34pts (+116.7% ROI).

Only one of the above wins was for current trainer Phil McBride, for whom he has a win and two places from three efforts, but Phil himself has a more than respectable record on the Tapeta here at this venue with 16 winners from 57 (28.1% SR) for 31.7pts (+55.5% ROI) from those sent off at 8/1 and shorter since the start of 2015 and these include of relevance today…

  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 32.7pts (+71.1%) from those with a run in the previous six weeks
  • 14/50 (28%) for 32.2pts (+64.4%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 13/32 (40.6%) for 47.1pts (+147.2%) in the March-September period
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 14.2pts (+40.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 17.6pts (+65.1%) at Class 6
  • and 6/18 (33.3%) for 30.8pts (+170.9%) since the start of 2018

…from which, horses running in March to September for prizes of less than £4,000 within 6 weeks of there last run are 12 from 26 (46.2% SR) for 43.2pts (+166% ROI), with the following applicable today…

  • 2018/19 : 6/13 (46.2%) for 35.8pts (+275.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/15 (40%) for 19.6pts (+131%)
  • in handicaps : 5/15 (33.3%) for 17.8pts (+118.3%)
  • 2018/19 handicaps : 4/10 (40%) for 18.61pts (+186.1%)
  • 2018/19 at Class 6 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.6pts (+237.4%)
  • in Class 6 handicaps : 2/9 (22.2%) for 4.59pts (+51%)
  • and 2018/19 in C6 hcps = 2/6 (33.3%) for 7.59pts (+126.5%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Tha’ir @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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