Stat of the Day, 1st June 2019

Friday’s pick was…

5.30 Wolverhampton : Tha’ir @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

4.30 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG

…in the 13-runner, Group 1, Investec Derby for 3yo over 1m4f  on Good ground worth a mere £921,537 to the winner…


This lightly raced (just three runs so far) colt has excellent breeding as you’d expect, he’s the son of a Derby winner out of an Oaks runner-up and has finished 211 in his runs so far, the latest being a win in the Gr 2 Dante at York over 10.5 furlongs 16 days ago under today’s jockey Oisin Murphy who is now 2 from 2 on the horse.

Overall, Oisin has 18 wins from 89 (20.2% SR) for 44pts (+49.4% ROI) for trainer Hughie Morrison, for which…

  • he is 14/48 (29.2%) for 55.9pts (+116.4%) on 3 yr olds
  • 9/23 (27.3%) for 42.1pts (+127.7%) during 2018/19
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 50pts (+238.3%)

Hughie himself has a 19.7% strike rate since 2010 on this uniquely quirky track, acquired via 12 winners from 61 yielding 45.2pts profit at an excellent ROI of 74.1% backed blindly and these include 6 from 22 (27.3%) for 27.1pts (+123.2%) since the start of the 2017 campaign.

And during 2017-19, Hughie’s LTO winners sent off at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 (we should be safe here) after at least 2 weeks rest are 14 from 54 (25.9% SR) for 45.2pts (+83.8% ROI), from which the following are relevant today…

  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 47pts (+123.6%) on the Flat
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 34.2pts (+114.1%) from male runners
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 42pts (+182.4%) during March to July
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 31pts (134.8%) from 3 yr olds
  • 4/8 (50%) for 31.5pts (+393.7%) at Class 1
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 11.5pts (+191.8%) over 1m4f

…and the above includes 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 25.46pts (+424.3% ROI) from 3 yr old males on the Flat in May/June…

And finally for today, I want to look at the general make-up of a Derby winner, as our pick is favoured by the the facts that the last 22 Derby winners included…

  • 22 with no previous run at the trip
  • 22 with no previous run at Epsom
  • 20 were last seen 2-5 weeks earlier
  • 18 were sent off at 7/1 and shorter
  • 17 had ran 3-5 times that season
  • 17 were drawn in stall 10 or a single digit
  • 15 were LTO winners
  • 12 had a maximum previous run of 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 11 had a maximum previous winning trip of 1m2f/1m2.5f

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Unibet at 6.05pm on Friday with plenty of 9/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.30 Epsom

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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