Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

4.30 Epsom : Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG 13th at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

4.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f  on Good to Firm ground worth £5715 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding comes here after running without much success at Class 4 (although he did win a couple of hurdle contests over the summer, suggesting stamina wouldn’t be his downfall here) and now drops back to Class 5 company for the first time since winning over 1m5f at Hamilton 11 months ago. That was off a mark of 76 under today’s jockey Danny Tudhope and the drop back in class allied to a mark now 4lbs lower than that run suggests he well be weighted to score here.

He’s currently 6 from 25 (24%) at Class 5, 5 from 22 (22.7%) under Danny Tudhope, 5 from 23 (21.7%) wearing a tongue tie and has a win and a place from two previous visits to this track : decent figures for an essentially Class 5 horse.

His trainer, David O’Meara, does well with this type of runner at this venue : more specifically, his Class 4/5 handicappers are 27 from 156 (17.3% SR) for 54.5pts (+34.9% ROI) backed blindly here at Thirsk since 2011. As usual, I’m not suggesting you follow the angle doggedly, so here are some ways of reducing the outlay whilst increasing both the SR and the ROI, as of the 27 winners…

  • 26 were from 137 (19%) running off marks of 67-85 giving 65.7pts at an ROI of 48%
  • 23/111 (20.7%) for 68.7pts (+61.9%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 22/105 (20.9%) for 52.7% (+50.2%) on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 20/91 (22%) for 60.1pts (+66.1%) from April to July
  • 18/61 (29.5%) for 64.5pts (+105.8%) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 17/44 (38.6%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%) sent off at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 19.8pts (+68.4%) ran 6-10 days earlier
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 30pts with one previous Thirsk win
  • and 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.4pts (+78.9%) over this 1m4f course and distance

Now, I know that some of you like me to combine some of the filters to produce a composite angle/micro-system to take forward, so I’d suggest…

Danny Tudhope on David O’Meara’s 4-8yr olds running off marks of 67-85 on Good/Good to Firm ground in Class 4/5 handicaps at Thirsk, which would give you 13 winners from 34 (38.2% SR) for 55.5pts (+163.3% ROI) : essentially reducing the original stat by 122 bets, but giving an extra point of profit! And from this 13/34 result, there are 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) for 27.8pts (+396.5% ROI) over the 1m4f course and distance…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Black Type, SkyBet & Unibet at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.15 Thirsk

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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