Monday’s pick was…
4.15 Thirsk : Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG WON at 5/2 (Held up off the pace in 7th, good headway on wide outside chasing leaders over 3f out, led over 1f out, ran on well)
Tuesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Steel Wave @ 3/1 BOG
…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner…
This 9yr old gelding was a winner last time out, 16 days ago here at this very track over 2m4.5f under jockey Tom Scudamore. Tom retains the ride today, but the horse does take a fairly big step up in trip. I’m not too concerned, as he made the frame the last time he tackled 3 miles and that was in an Irish Grade 2 contest last winter. If running to that level, this should be his for the taking.
He is trained by Gary Hanmer who whilst not being too much of a household name certainly knows his way around his horses to run well at this venue, just 15 miles away from his base in Cheshire. In fact, since the start of 2015, his runners are 7 from 35 (20% SR) for 88.5pts (+252.9% ROI) here at Bangor and the following would suggest that this is the type of race he tends to win, as…
- those running on Good ground are 6/20 (30%) for 78.8pts (+394%)
- 8-11 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 89.2pts (+424.7%)
- males are 6/24 (25%) for 35.9pts (+149.7%)
- chasers are 5/14 (35.7%) for 32.6pts (+232.7%)
- handicappers are 5/24 (20.8%) for 81.7pts (+340.3%)
- those racing over 2m7f to 3m0.5f are 4/13 (30.8%) for 87pts (+669.2%)
- those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 4/18 922.2%) for 24.1pts (+133.8%)
- and at Class 4 : 4/20 (20%) for 60.93pts (+304.7%)
…whilst from the above…8-10 yr old male chasers have won 4 of 5 (80% SR) on good ground for profits of 16.83pts (+336.6% ROI).
In addition to those numbers quoted, you might find it interesting/reassuring to know that since the start of 2016 in Class 4 handicap chases here at Bangor, male runners who won a handicap chase last time out less than three weeks earlier are 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 7.29pts (+34.7% ROI) and these include 5 winners from 12 (41.7%) for 10.27pts (+85.6%) over this 3m course and distance.
…which all points to… a 1pt win bet on Steel Wave @ 3/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Monday with plenty of more than acceptable 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!