Stat of the Day, 5th June 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.30 Bangor : Steel Wave @ 3/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Soon mid-division, closed 5th, went 2nd before 12th, not fluent 3 out, challenged 2 out, led before last, all out to win by half a length)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

8.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Knight Crusader @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner… 

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding with 2 wins and 5 places from his ten starts to date, including the following form lines of relevance today…

  • 14312 after 1-4 weeks rest
  • 38112 over a 2m trip
  • 3122 under jockey Adam Kirby
  • 122 in Class 4 races worth at least £6,000
  • 122 in handicaps
  • 331 here at Kempton
  • and he’s 1 from over course and distance.

Only beaten by a length LTO, when headed late on at Goodwood 12 days ago, getting reeled in by one carrying some 12lbs less on quicker ground than today, but I fancy him to make amends here and continue his good recent form for trainer John O’Shea whose record with horses running in UK handicaps within 60 days of an LTO-top 3 finish stands at 43 from 203 (21.2% SR) for 85.9pts (+42.3% ROI) since the start of 2015 and of those 43 winners…

  • 40 are from the 139 (28.8%) sent off at 8/1 and shorter producing 77.6pts at an ROI of 55.8%
  • 28/111 (25.2%) for 45.2pts (+40.7%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • 28/117 (23.9%) for 89.7pts (+76.6%) at the same class as LTO
  • 25/116 (21.6%) for 80.1pts (+69%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 24/118 (20.3%) for 72.7pts (+61.6%) since the start of 2017
  • 23/95 (24.2%) for 43.7pts (+46%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 23/100 (23%) for 79.8pts (+79.8%) from May to August
  • 14/61 (23%) for 64.5pts (+105.7%) from those beaten by a head to 2 lengths LTO
  • 14/71 (19.7%) for 16.7pts (+23.5%) on the A/W
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 53pts (+155.9%) from those with 1 previous C&D success
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 35.9pts (+73.2%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 5/18 (27.8%) for 11.3pts (+62.7%) here at Kempton

…and if you wanted a 20-ish bets per year micro, then…those sent off at 8/1 or shorter over a trip equal to or within 1.5 furlongs of LTO at the same class or within 1 class of LTO after less than 3 weeks rest are 32/98 (32.7% SR) for 73.2pts (+74.7% ROI), giving us 85% of the original stat’s profits from just 48% of the bets and these include 10 winners from 35 (28.6%) for 20.2pts (+57.8%) from those beaten by a head to two lengths last time…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Knight Crusader @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & Betway at 6.05pm on Tuesday with plenty of more than acceptable 9/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.15 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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