Stat of the Day, 6th June 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

8.15 Kempton : Knight Crusader @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 11/4 (In touch main group, driven over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, never near to challenge, weakened inside final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

5.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Everkyllachy @ 9/2 BOG

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…in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Soft ground worth £5434 to the winner… 

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is 6 from 39 (15.4% SR) overall, which is far from disgraceful, but she’s had a bit of a renaissance, since a switch of yards last November. She spent the winter familiarising herself with her new surroundings in the North East ahead of a yard debut run at the end of March, which she won and she’s now 3 from 4 for new handler Karen McLintock including a soft ground course and distance success here last time out, 8 days ago.

That last run/win was in an apprentice handicap so she’s not penalised for that win and with a 7lb claimer taking the ride today, she’s effectively 2lbs better off against the re-opposing runner-up Boundsy.

With regards to today’s race, her overall 6 from 39 (15.4% SR) record includes…

  • 6/31 (19.4%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) at odds of 2/1 to 8/1
  • 5/29 (17.2%) within 30 days of her last run
  • 4/11 (36.4%) over 5f
  • 3/8 (37.5%) over a “straight” 5f
  • 3/4 (75%) for trainer Karen McLintock
  • 2/2 (100%) on Soft ground (both over 5f)
  • and 1/1 (100%) here at Hamilton (that C&D win LTO, 8 days ago)

and she’s 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 26.3pts (+164.2% ROI) in handicaps at 2/1 to 8/1 within 30 days of her last run, including 3 from 5 (60%) for 17.75pts (+355%) over a 5f trip.

Overall, Karen McLintock’s handicappers sent off at 12/1 or shorter (my usual starting point) here at Hamilton are 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 26.3pts (+187.9% ROI) since the start of the 2017 season and these include 5/6 yr olds winning 4 of 7 (57.1%) for 19.65pts (+280.7%)

And, since 2013, her LTO winners sent off at Evens to 12/1 within 75 days of that run are 18/52 (34.6% SR) for 35.7pts (+68.7% ROI), including the following of relevance today…

  • Feb -Aug : 17/38 (44.7%) for 44.9pts (+118.3%)
  • 2016-19 : 13/39 (33.3%) for 32.5pts (+83.4%)
  • 5 yr olds : 9/18 (50%) for 34pts (+189.1%)
  • Flat : 6/20 (30%) for 12pts (+60%)
  • Class 5 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 21.5pts (+153.8%)

…from which…during February to August 2016-19 there are 12 winners from 27 (44.4% SR) for 39.7pts (+147.2% ROI) and these include…

  • 8/14 from 5 yr olds
  • 6/14 on the Flat
  • 5/10 at Class 5
  • 4/9 from 5 yr olds at Class 5
  • 3/5 from 5 yr olds on the Flat
  • 3/4 at Class 5 on the Flat
  • and 2 from 3 from 5 yr olds at Class 5 on the Flat…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Everkyllachy @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.00 Hamilton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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