Stat of the Day, 7th June 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

5.00 Hamilton : Everkyllachy @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, effort 2f out, soon ridden and every chance, kept on same pace final furlong)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

7.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Tricky Dicky @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 10-runner (was 11), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £4852 to the winner… 

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is having a decent season so far, having 2 wins and 2 places from his last five runs, taking his overall career tally to 8 wins and a further 13 places from 44 and when you consider that at the lower reaches of the handicap game where the same horses race and beat each other on a regular basis, any runner with a win strike rate of 18.2% and a overall place record of 47.7% is worth a second look at least.

A deeper analysis of his 44 runs to date shows that he might very well be suited by today’s race conditions, as he has…

  • 16 places (inc 7 wins) from 31 efforts over this 6f trip
  • 12 places (inc 6 wins) from 18 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 12 places (inc 5 wins) from 26 on a straight track
  • 11 places (inc 5 wins) from 22 during May to August
  • and 7 places (inc 3 wins) from 10 when rested for just 1-2 weeks since his last run…

…whilst in handicaps over a straight 6f in a field of 9-13 runners Tricky Dicky is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 65.9pts (+1097.5% ROI), figures admittedly skewed by a winner paying 60/1 at Betfair SP, but that doesn’t alter the strike rate!

He is trained by the in-form (8/39 over the last two weeks) Roger Fell, whose Haydock handicappers sent off at 7/1 and shorter are 6 from 16 (31.25% SR) for 18.4pts (+115% ROI) and whilst that’s not a massive sample size, it does throw up some interesting data based around today’s type of race, including…

  • male runners at 6/15 940%) for 19.4pts (+129.3%)
  • less than 3 weeks after their last run : 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.4pts (+164.6%)
  • 4-7 yr olds are 6/11 (54.5%) for 23.4pts (+212.7%)
  • at 6-10 days since last run : 4/9 (44.4%) for 12.65pts (+140.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/10 (30%) for 3.93pts (+39.3%)
  • in June : 3/6 (50%) for 9.81pts (+163.4%)
  • and those ridden by today’s jockey Ben Sanderson are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 7.29pts (+243%)…

…whilst based around the above…4-7 yr old males at 6-20 days since last run = 6/10 (60% SR) for 24.4pts (+244% ROI) and these include 4/10 at 6-10 dslr, 3/5 at Class 5, 3/4 in June and 2/3 for Ben Sanderson…

…and the Class 5 runners at 6-10 dslr are 3/4 (75% SR) for 9.93pts (+248.1% ROI) from which Ben is 1 from 1 and there’s a 1 from 1 record in June…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Tricky Dicky @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.35pm on Thursday, although Hills (non-BOG until midnight) were offering 9/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.25 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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