Stat of the Day, 8th June 2019

Friday’s pick was…

7.25 Haydock : Tricky Dicky @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, kept on one pace final furlong)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

4.20 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £5608 to the winner… 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 further places from 8 runs since stepping up in trip to 10/10.5 furlongs last July, including a win over today’s trip LTO 12 days ago at relatively nearby (70 miles away) Redcar taking his career record to 4 wins from 19, of which the following are relevant today…

  • 4 from 9 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 3 from 4 as favourite
  • 3 from 7 after 1 to 2 weeks rest
  • 3 from 12 in Yorkshire
  • 2 from 4 over this 1m2f trip
  • 2 from 5 here at Beverley
  • 2 from 5 going right handed
  • 2 from 8 on Good to Firm
  • 1 from 2 under today’s jockey Scott Rowan
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance.

His trainer, Nigel Tinkler’s LTO winners are 12/60 (20% SR) for 18.9pts (+31.5% ROI) over the last two years, including 12 winners from 50 (24%) for 28.9pts (+57.8%) on the Flat, and from these 50 on the Flat…

  • 2-4 yr olds are 12/39 (30.8%) for 39.9pts (+102.3%)
  • at odds of 7/2 and shorter : 9/17 (52.9%) for 16.05pts (+94.4%)
  • at 6-15 days since last run : 8/17 (47.1%) for 30.97pts (+182.2%)
  • and on Good to Firm : 5/24 (20.8%) for 12.3pts (+51.1%)

…whilst 2-4 yr olds at 7/2 and shorter, 6-15 days after their LTO win are 6 from 7 (85.7% SR) for 15.14pts (+216.3%) with a 2 from 2 (100%) record on Good to Firm producing 5.75pts at an ROI of 287.4%.

And finally, a quick look a the yard’s record with handicap class droppers, as such runners are 31/191 (16.2% SR) for 59.3pts (+31% ROI) since the start of 2015, including…

  • males at 23/143 (16.1%) for 58.5pts (+40.9%)
  • on Good to Firm : 12/80 (15%) for 49.3pts (+61.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 55.6pts (+163.6%)
  • and in June : 7/26 (26.9%) for 34.7pts (+133.3%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.20 Beverley

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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