Saturday’s pick was…
4.20 Beverley : Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway on inside over 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left to challenge, led just inside final furlong, hung right closing stages, ran on to win comfortably by 4 lengths)
Monday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Kinks @ 7/2 BOG
…in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £9238 to the winner…
This 3 yr old gelding hasn’t quite scaled the heights expected of him so far, having been entered into races at Gr 2 & Listed class last season, but does at least come here off the back of a decent run LTO in a big field (14 ran) Class 2 handicap at Newmarket 23 days ago when he was third, beaten by just a neck and a short head under jockey Nicola Currie.
I’ve nothing bad to say about Nicola, I think she’s very talented, but the booking of Silvestre de Sousa, in her place, on a track where he has been very successful in the past is a positive move for me, as is the drop in class. In fact Silvestre comes here in decent touch having ridden 13 winners from his last 68 rides over the previous fortnight and boasts a record of better than 2 in 9 at this venue since 2010 over trips up to 1m2f, winning 55 of 246 (22.4% SR) for 87.3pts (+35.5% ROI) profit.
Trainer Mick Channon also does pretty well here too, independently of the jockey’s successes and over the last five seasons, Mick’s runners here are 13 from 52 (25% SR) for 75.6pts (+145.4% ROI), including of relevance today…
- at 6-60 days since last run : 13/41 (31.7%) for 88.6pts (+211.2%)
- at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 : 8/20 (40%) for 12.22pts (+61.1%)
- in handicaps : 8/28 (28.6%) for 65.6pts (+234.2%)
- those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 7/15 946.7%) for 49.9pts (+332.5%)
- over this 6f course and distance : 7/16 (43.8%) for 34.4pts (+214.9%)
- 3 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 26.5pts (+126.2%)
- males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.3pts (+162.3%)
- and class droppers are 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 29.2pts (+243.5%)…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kinks @ 7/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!